Sunday, March 20, 2022

"When the Ukraine war spreads to a NATO nation"

Should the war expand and, God forbid, go nuclear, Paris is the European capital that would suffer the worst effects from a single Russian 800 kiloton nuke launched on the Topol SS-25 missile:

Estimated fatalities: 1,606,610
Estimated injuries:   2,833,150

By comparison the same weapon used on London, again, a single, less-than-one-megaton bomb would result in:

Estimated fatalities: 947,080
Estimated injuries: 2,295,450 

Further east:

Berlin   
Estimated fatalities: 629,400
Estimated injuries: 1,281,850

Warsaw 
Estimated fatalities: 501,470
Estimated injuries:   792,920
 
Budapest
Estimated fatalities: 363,350
Estimated injuries:   770,220 

Prague 
Estimated fatalities: 359,720
Estimated injuries:   489,160
 
That is six bombs. Smaller ones.
We can't let things go nuclear. Period 
For comparison, the largest ICBM-launched U.S. nuke, 9 megatons, would result in:
 
Paris
Estimated fatalities: 3,940,720
Estimated injuries:   3,918,390
Moscow
Estimated fatalities: 4,200,750 
Estimated injuries:   4,916,950

From Asia Times, March 19:

NATO obliged to defend front-line states Poland, Slovenia and Czech Republic if Russian expansionism reaches beyond Ukraine 

As Russian military activity moves nearer the Ukrainian border with NATO, the potential for direct confrontation between Russia and the alliance increases. On March 13, Russian aircraft reportedly fired rockets at the Yavoriv International Center for Peacekeeping and Security, 20 kilometers from Ukraine’s border with Poland, a NATO member.

The possibility of a unit from the Russian or Belarusian military stumbling across a border is also high. Mistakes happen in all military organizations, something shown starkly in recent days when India accidentally launched a missile into Pakistan – two nuclear-armed nations in a state of high tension.

The possibility of retaliation by Pakistan was significant, but unlike in Ukraine there is no open conflict to confuse the situation. Had such an event occurred between Poland and Russian forces in Ukraine, for example, it’s unlikely that the Polish government would have been convinced the missile launch had been a mistake.

Concern regarding Russia’s intentions is at a higher level in the eastern nations of NATO than those to the west. On March 15, the prime ministers of Poland, Slovenia and the Czech Republic risked a train ride into Ukraine to meet the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in Kiev. Those countries face the risk of being next in line if Russian expansionism continues – as some expect it to....

....MORE

Watching the intelligence and other communities I do get concerned that the daamn fools are going to get us into a nuclear war. And from watching these people and their pseudo-callous indifference (actually it's just psychopathy writ large) they wouldn't think twice about 50 million people dying on their watch, as long as they could stay in power. Here's one example out of many. Bill Clinton's Secretary of State Madeleine Albright  asked by CBS' Leslie Stahl about the half-million children estimated to have been killed in Iraq by Western sanctions (in place 1990 - 2003):

576,000 children were killed by these sanctions. (The New York Times, 12-1-95)

Lesley Stahl on U.S. sanctions against Iraq: We have heard that a half million children have died. I mean, that’s more children than died in Hiroshima. And, you know, is the price worth it?

Secretary of State Madeleine Albright: I think this is a very hard choice, but the price–we think the price is worth it.

60 Minutes (5/12/96)

Via Fairness and Accuracy In Reporting, November, 2001.

Stahl's reference to Hiroshima makes slightly, very, very slightly more sense than Zelensky equating Russian actions in Ukraine to the Holocaust in an address to the Israeli Knesset earlier today.

The death toll at Hiroshima is estimated to have been between 66,000 and 120,000.