For what it is worth we are betting that recession is the end result of all the Fed and Treasury and Congressional machinations of the last 2 1/4 years. The timing can be manipulated to suit the designs of the Fed's political masters but the alternative, let inflation run its course and burn itself out will result in riots like the U.S. has never seen. For reasons we will attempt to tease out over the coming months the Fed and the puppet masters behind the politicians wanted inflation to run this hot. So it has.
From Harley Bassman at Simplify Asset Management, March 28:
Cognitive dissonance is often defined as simultaneously holding conflicting or inconsistent thoughts, attitudes, and beliefs.
It is a signpost of the mature mind to accomplish this feat without first securing
a membership at the local dispensary.Just as I cannot avert my eyes from a crash site, I similarly marvel at the opposing positions offered at the same time by our political class, with unreserved sincerity.
In contrast, the governors of the Federal Reserve Bank (the FED) instill confidence in our financial system by projecting certainty. Thus, the FED’s stress must be palpable as they presently try to jam the square peg of inflation into the round hole of a bond market signaling a recession.
Dr. Cam Harvey was a recent guest on our monthly “Keeping It Simple” webinar.
Dr. Harvey secured his PhD (at UChicago, of course) with a dissertation highlighting the relationship between the Yield Curve and economic recessions.As a reminder, the Yield Curve is the graphical representation of interest rates between three-months and thirty-years, which usually tends to slope upwards to
reflect the greater risk inherent with longer-term bonds....
....MUCH MORE
