The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season looks increasingly like it will be a season to watch for insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) interests, as the latest outlook forecasts to emerge raise the number of tropical storms and hurricanes expected during the season even further.....MUCH MORE
After our last update on prospects for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season the average forecast, across those forecast teams we track who had issued an opinion by that time, was calling for 16 named tropical storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes to be experienced this year.
That’s already above the long-term, median and recent historical averages, only slight above the last decade though.
But now new forecasts have come out from the Weather Company and NC State University, with both calling for the 2020 hurricane season to see above average levels of activity, boosting our average even further.
First, the Weather Company, which is forecasting a significantly above average year with eighteen named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes for the 2020 Atlantic season.
In fact, basing its forecast outlook on Atlantic Ocean sea-surface temperatures, La Niña and other teleconnections, computer model forecast guidance, as well as past hurricane seasons exhibiting similar atmospheric conditions, chief meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford warns this year could be particularly active.
“Weighing all of the factors, we have started the bidding at 18 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes for the 2020 North Atlantic tropical season,” Crawford explained.
“However, we think there is still some upside to these numbers, and that a ‘hyperactive season’ like we had in 2010 and 2017 is still in play.”
Of course, there is now [sic] correlation between numbers of storms and landfalls, nor to insurance and reinsurance market loss experience.
But clearly, the more storms that form the greater the chances at least one finds it way towards land and could make a financial impact.
The state of El Niño or La Niña conditions will be a factor, with a chance of ENSO neutral through the start of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, but also a chance of it shifting to a La Niña by the second-half, around September onwards....
From April 22's "FAO: "Assessing El Niño’s Impact on Fisheries and Aquaculture Around the World""
IRI/Columbia's model forecasts have conditions going from ENSO neutral (+0.5° C to -0.5° C) this month to weak La Niña 'conditions and then weak La Niña (three rolling three-month periods):
IRI/CPC ENSO Predictions Plume
Published: April 20, 2020
