Monday, May 4, 2020

ICYMI—Shipping: "Tanker Rates Crash as OPEC+ Cuts Near. Tanker Owners Reman Bullish"

Because the tanker company stocks are basically just a derivative of the rates the companies can charge you get action in the equities that looks like this since Iran was hijacking ships last year and having their proxies invade and attempt to burn the U.S. embassy in Baghdad (top tick) and Soleimani was killed and world war III didn't happen and coronavirus became the thing that everyone was talking about (bottom tick) so countries destroyed their economies and the Saudis opened the taps and WTI futures went negative and 300+million barrels got stored on tankers and OPEC+ said they were turning off the taps and, well you try trading this mess:
April 5
"Roller-coaster ride goes on for crude-tanker stocks" (FRO; TNK; EURN)
*****
Do tell.



FRO Frontline Ltd. daily Stock Chart
TNK Teekay Tankers Ltd. daily Stock Chart
EURN Euronav NV daily Stock Chart
 (all via FinViz)

Some of the headlines:
Shipping/Oil: "VLCCs: Rates Rocket Upwards on Strong Demand" (NAT; FRO; EURN; TNK)
Shipping: "Tankers Could Face Rocky Period Ahead"
"Tanker Rates Double as Oil Contango Spreads"
"Saudi Arabia Tanker Power Play Could Backfire as Oil Demand Shrinks"
"Glencore Charters One of the World’s Biggest Tankers to Store Oil at Sea" (EURN)
"Oil’s big storage problem" (TNK; FRO; EURN) 

And from Bloomberg via gCaptain, May 1:

Oil tanker rates are crashing as a pact to limit global crude production begins. Don’t bet on the rout enduring.
From today, crude producers in the OPEC+ alliance are cutting their collective output by a level that’s unprecedented in history — almost 10% of global consumption. Normally, such huge curbs would have destroyed the tanker market almost as soon as they were announced a few weeks ago, as a dogfight broke out for a fast-diminishing pool of cargoes. But these aren’t normal times.

The coronavirus has wiped out so much oil demand that the world will still be over-producing on a huge scale. While that means fewer cargoes, which is bad for the owners, it also means a glut that must be stashed some place. And that place is often on supertankers because space in on-land tanks has already been booked up or filled.
“OPEC+ cuts would have led to rates crashing” down to about $9,000 a day, a level that just covers the ships’ running costs, said Frode Morkedal, an analyst at Clarksons Platou AS, a unit of the world’s largest shipbroker. Instead, the drop in cargoes will mostly just free up more tankers to act as storage vessels — for which demand remains strong — propping up freight rates.

Shares of Euronav NV, Frontline Ltd. and DHT Holdings Inc., three owners whose fleets are dominated by crude carriers, all slumped earlier in the week amid concern that the supply curtailments of 9.7 million barrels a day will ultimately hurt their earnings, and also because an oil-market incentive to store diminished.

Day rates to China from Saudi Arabia stood at just over $100,000 a day on Thursday, according to the Baltic Exchange. That represents a drop of more than 50% in the space of a week — a big decline even by the volatile standards of the spot tanker business....
....MUCH MORE