Probably not so good coming from the investment blogger either.
Yet here we are.
Front futures down $0.1610 (7.54%), giving up all of yesterday's gains plus a little bit more.
$1.9730 last.
From FX Empire this morning:
Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Production Declines Underpinning Prices Ahead of EIA Report
We have conditions in place, however, that could lead to a lingering uptrend. We have the dampening of demand destruction due to the easing of lockdown restrictions and lower production.
Natural gas futures are trading lower on Wednesday shortly before the regular session opening. The move suggests that traders are already preparing for what could be a very rare triple-digit storage build in April for the last week of the month. However, the selling pressure hasn’t been that devastating as production declines spread across oil-rich basin, helping to underpin prices.
Preliminary forecasts show the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to report a 105 Bcf injection for the week-ended May 1, according to a survey of analysts by S&P Global Platts. Responses to the survey ranged from an injection of 88 Bcf to 116 Bcf. The EIA will release its weekly storage report on Thursday at 14:30 GMT.....MORE
At 10:05 GMT, June natural gas futures are trading $2.070, down $0.064 or -3.00%.
A 105 Bcf injection would be more than the 96 Bcf addition to the corresponding week last year as well the five-year average build of 74 Bcf. An addition within expectations would increase stocks to 2.315 Tcf. The surplus to the five-year average would increase to 391 Bcf, and the overhang to 2019 would grow to 792 Bcf, according to government data.
Short-Term Weather Outlook
According to NatGasWeather for May 5 to May 11, “Weather systems with showers and cooling will sweep across the northern U.S. into next week with highs of 40s to 60s. The Southwest will remain hot with highs of 90s. Near ideal temperatures with highs of 70s to 80s will rule Texas, the South, and Southeast. The Southwest will be hot with 90s to 100s, while mild to warm over the rest of the West with 60s to 80s. Overall, moderate heating demand in the northern U.S., but lighter cooling demand in Texas, the South, and Southeast.”....
On top of there being lower than average demand for artificial cooling you have fewer shipments of LNG from U.S. liquefaction plants and ports this week, a market that has become the swing number that analysts have to factor into their guesses for the storage report.
Which as noted above, is tomorrow.
p.s.
we don't link to the "Natural Gas Weekly Update" for grins and giggles:
April 30
U.S. LNG exports decrease week over week. Eleven LNG vessels (six from Sabine Pass, two from Cameron and one each from Freeport, Cove Point and Corpus Christi) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 39 Bcf departed the United States between April 23 and April 29, 2020, according to shipping data compiled by Bloomberg. One vessel was loading at the Freeport terminal on Wednesday.
April 23
U.S. LNG exports decrease week over week. Thirteen LNG vessels (seven from Sabine Pass, two each from Cove Point and Corpus Christi, and one each from Cameron and Freeport) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 48 Bcf departed the United States between April 16 and April 22, 2020, according to shipping data provided by MarineTraffic.com.
April 16
U.S. LNG exports increase week over week. Seventeen LNG vessels (seven from Sabine Pass, four from Corpus Christi, and three each from Cameron and Freeport) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 61 Bcf departed the United States between April 9 and April 15, 2020, according to shipping data provided by MarineTraffic.com.
