Wednesday, May 6, 2020

"Daily electricity demand in New York falls about 13% after COVID-19 mitigation efforts"

Note that the authors do not ascribe the collapse in NY 'leccy usage to the coronavirus but to the mitigation efforts. This part of what is going on is a man-made disaster and the fact that New York used to account for 8.1% of the U.S. GDP (1.751T of 21.439T in 2019),  the state dragged the country into recession all by itself.

From the Energy Information Administration, May 6:

Today in Energy
NYISO electricity demand and temperature
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Hourly Electric Grid Monitor; National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, Aviation Weather Center and National Centers for Environmental Information
Recent business shutdowns and changes to normal routines related to mitigation efforts for the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have caused daily, weekday electricity demand in New York state to decrease by 11%–14% in March and April compared with expected demand, after accounting for seasonal temperature changes. Electricity demand changes in New York state and in New York City, in particular, have been more pronounced than in other parts of the country, which may partly be caused by regional differences in how much electricity each end-use sector consumes and the varying effects of COVID-19 mitigation efforts on the sectors.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Hourly Electric Grid Monitor provides hourly electricity demand data from the 64 balancing authorities in the contiguous United States, including the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), which operates the electric grid serving New York state. Using these data, EIA compared the daily electricity demand of each weekday in 2020 through May 1 to the average demand of all weekdays with the same daily average temperature from January through June in 2016–2019. Weekends and holidays were excluded.

Comparing current electricity demand to historical temperature-comparable days instead of simply to the same calendar day or week of previous years better isolates the effect of unexpected events, such as the mitigation efforts taken in response to COVID-19, because it accounts for any changes in electricity demand caused by normal seasonal temperature fluctuations. Electricity demand during the spring and fall shoulder seasons can be particularly volatile because temperatures often swing significantly from week to week.

NYISO daily weekday electricity demand
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Hourly Electric Grid Monitor; National Oceanic 
and Atmospheric Administration, Aviation Weather Center and National Centers for Environmental Information
On the NYISO grid, daily weekday electricity demand in January 2020 and most of February 2020 closely tracked the average temperature-comparable historical demand before beginning to drop slightly at the end of February. This drop became more pronounced in March as the state began taking steps to limit the spread of COVID-19. By late March, weekday NYISO daily electricity demand averaged about 13% lower than temperature-comparable historical demand, where it remained through April.... 
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And the thing is, what New York has done isn't working. If they had been serious they would have shut down the subways and trains. If they had been serious they would not have ordered nursing homes to take back presumptive covid-19 patients. If they had been serious with addressing the pandemic they wouldn't have 25,000 dead and more telling, the highest death rate per capita in the country, by a factor of 38 times over that of the much-vilified South Dakota. 1297 deaths per million population versus 34.
Something is very, very wrong in New York.