Monday, September 30, 2019

Ahead of Today's USDA Grain Inventory Report

The question the entire nation is asking, via AgWeb: 

Can USDA Stocks Report Help Clarify Outlook?
Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for September 30, 2019.
Grain markets continue to push higher despite fears U.S.–China trade relationships could be deteriorating again as the two sides seems to be distancing themselves from one another.  Traders will be keeping a close eye on today’s USDA quarterly stocks report for an update.

Last week, December corn futures were up 1.25 cents, November soybeans up 0.25 cents, December wheat up 2.75 cents, December soymeal was up $0.10 and December soyoil was down 63 points.

USDA weekly crop progress report will be released today at 3 p.m. CST.  Trade is looking for corn harvest rating at 14% complete (7% complete last week, 19% 5-year average).  Winter wheat plantings at 38% complete (22% complete last week, 43% 5-year average).

CFTC Commitments of Traders showed funds new net position short -159,890 corn contracts, short -41,688 soybean contracts, short -18,779 wheat contracts, short -5,817 live cattle contracts and long +21,455 lean hog contracts.

USDA's quarterly grain stocks report will be released today at 11 A.M. CDT.  Average analyst estimates are .982 billion bushels of soybeans, 2.318 billion bu. of wheat, and 2.428 billion bu. of corn.  If realized, the corn and soybean numbers would be some of the largest on record....

And from DTN Progressive Farmer:

USDA Reports Preview
A Quarterly Checkup From USDA
I'll say it again, the 2019 U.S. crop season continues to be unlike any other in recent history. While we wait to see how harvest turns out, USDA has a couple of reports for us to consider on Monday, Sept. 30. 

The Sept. 1 Grain Stocks Report will establish final ending corn and soybean stocks for the 2018-19 season. For wheat, USDA's wheat stocks estimate will help us compare first-quarter demand with previous years. In the Small Grains Summary, USDA will provide estimates of 2019 wheat production by class at a time when the spring wheat harvest is encountering more difficulty than usual.
Both reports will be released at 11 a.m. CDT.

USDA's Sept. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report estimated U.S. ending corn stocks at 2.445 billion bushels (bb) for 2018-19. The ending stocks-to-use ratio of 17% was the highest since 2005-06, inflated by six consecutive years of good weather and big crops. Dow Jones' survey of analysts expects USDA to find 2.436 bb of corn on hand as of Sept. 1, very close to the Sept. 12 estimate. If there is a surprise Monday, the odds lean bearish as corn demand has fallen off in recent months....MUCH MORE
Soybeans are up, wheat is down, corn is middling:


All charts via FinViz futures who are highlighting the drop in Brent.
(also in blogroll at right)