Note: this is an opinion piece, nothing is preordained, but if it comes to pass, the bankruptcy attorneys and distressed debt vultures will be feeding off the industry's bones for a decade.
The writer is looking for faster uptake of industrial 3-D printing than we are but is correct that behind the scenes it is making serious inroads in some types of metalworking.*
And the latest Maersk and CMA CGM ultra-large container vessels (ULCVs)
From gCaptain:
Will Shipping Face Another Perfect Storm?
By Captain George Livingstone –
One of my first columns of the year was on the state of the international maritime industry, I discussed a broad range of topics, one of which was a coming sea change in the world-wide manufacturing industry.I would like to focus on that.
History is replete with both ‘metaphorical’ and ‘real’ perfect storms.Is there is a common thread running through them all?
The fall of Rome
On a cold December morning in the year 410 A.D.,
the citizens of Rome awoke to find Alaric, King of the Visigoth’s and
his army at their city gates, they were astounded, completely taken off
guard.It was preposterous
but none the less there he stood and ten centuries of Roman influence
was about to descend into the chaos of the Dark ages.*
Sail to Steam
In 1819 when a Capt. Moses Rogers in association with Robert Fulton suggested the new build three masted ocean packet Savannah
be fitted with a Fulton designed steam engine driven by iron paddle
wheels there was deep skepticism and disbelief among the maritime
community in general.In
fact, the debate raged for five decades until put in its coffin by the
likes of Samuel Cunard and other pioneers of the modern steamship.No amount of romance or affection was able to save commercial sailing vessels from the reality of a changing world.
ContainerizationIn 1956 when trucking magnet Malcom McLean’s converted World War Two, T-2 tanker Ideal X made
its first voyage from Newark, NJ to Houston, Texas with 48 steel
containers, few in the maritime community recognized the revolution that
was upon them that would forever change sea trade in manufactured
goods.
Super Tanker era
In 1960, the average sized Oil Tanker plying the world’s oceans
was still the just mentioned World War Two, T-2 tanker at 532 feet long
and 16,500 DWT.Few within the international tanker market at the time had any clue as to what was about to descend on them.By
1970 there was an entirely new class of tank ship, the VLCC (Very Large
Crude Carrier) ranging about 100 times bigger in deadweight than the
T-2.
The pinnacle (and nearly the end) of the world wide mania for Super Tankers might be the 1976 French built Batillus Class ULCC (Ultra Large Crude Carrier).At 1359 feet and 555,000 DWT, the class was beyond belief to most mariners of the day.Ship
size changed so fast and so much that in 1968 Esso Oil started the
world’s very first ‘manned model’ ship handling school in order that
their masters (and eventually pilots) could come to grips with the
changes taking place within the tanker market.It should be noted that the Batillus was retired after only four years due to lack of charters.War,
politics and disaster (Bantry Bay, Ireland) perfectly combined to end
overnight what had been thought to be solid and permanent.
Would there be debate regarding the idea that the previous paragraphs qualify as Perfect Storms?If no, what is the underlying common thread? I suggest it was complete surprise, few saw any of it coming.Still, the warning signs were all there in every case, nothing happens in a vacuum.It would seem, however that history repeated, repeatedly as most simply couldn’t see what was just over the horizon.That doesn’t mean there weren’t warnings, they just weren’t heard.
Storm Warning
As we approach the 3rd decade of the 21st
Century could we be facing another Perfect Storm? Will it also have a
seismic impact on the international maritime community? There are voices
calling the alarm.As a source, I would cite Shipping Podcast voices of the maritime industryhosted by Lena Gothberg, for anyone who hasn’t tuned in to this remarkably informative weekly podcast, I highly recommend it.
In its 35th episode in 2016, Ms. Gothberg interviewed author, novelist and founder of Futurnautics Kate D. Adamson.Ms
Adamson’s area of expertise includes the future of transport, 3-D &
4-D print technology among other topics focusing on maritime.Ms Adamson predicts (and she is not alone) a coming Tsunami, a perfect storm
of 3-D & 4-D technological advances that will sweep through the
international container business like the disruptive force it is.
Like previous maritime prefect storms many will not be aware until events are upon them.Some
may see it coming but too late to alter their business models. Some
survive and eventually thrive but no one exposed to this segment of the
maritime business gets through without upheaval.
The Bottom line from my understanding?Due
to advances already happening in 3-D and 4-D Print technology, product
manufacturing is on the cusp of climatic change from Big Scale (big
Ships) International, Intermodal to Small Scale (smaller ships),
localized/focused/specialized on demand, on time cargo.I
am guessing something akin to the present Matson Shipping Line (US
Container Line) model, smaller ships focused on a small lot customers
based around a very flexible, on time/on demand schedule.The reason?Much
of worldwide manufacturing in industrial nations (non-industrial
another matter) will be done locally through 3-D and 4-D print
technology.We
are talking about a revolution in how manufactured products are
produced, no more need for cheap labor in faraway places. No need for
giant container ships running intermodal cargo on the Asia-Europe and
Asia-Pacific trades as there won’t be any need for them....
Ya think this may have some far-flung implications? It's not just robots
the Chinese are going after, it's the additive manufacturing end of the
3D biz, metal not plastic.Our second of three posts from The Economist
today: Additive manufacturing is growing apace in China
It is hard to argue with any of the points they make regarding the @home/hobbyist market.
For the long haul the metal sintering and printing companies are the real prize which is why DDD just picked one up....
While 3-D printing has been around for decades, it
has remained largely in the domain of hobbyists and designers producing
one-off prototypes. And printing objects with anything other than
plastics—in particular, metal—has been expensive and painfully slow.
Now,
however, it’s becoming cheap and easy enough to be a potentially
practical way of manufacturing parts. If widely adopted, it could change
the way we mass-produce many products.
In the short term, manufacturers wouldn’t need to maintain large inventories—they could simply print an object, such as a replacement part for an aging car, whenever someone needs it.
In
the longer term, large factories that mass-produce a limited range of
parts might be replaced by smaller ones that make a wider variety,
adapting to customers’ changing needs.
The
technology can create lighter, stronger parts, and complex shapes that
aren’t possible with conventional metal fabrication methods. It can also
provide more precise control of the microstructure of metals. In 2017,
researchers from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory announced
they had developed a 3-D-printing method for creating stainless-steel
parts twice as strong as traditionally made ones.
Also in 2017, 3-D-printing company Markforged, a small startup based outside Boston, released the first 3-D metal printer for under $100,000.
Another Boston-area startup, Desktop Metal,
began to ship its first metal prototyping machines in December 2017. It
plans to begin selling larger machines, designed for manufacturing,
that are 100 times faster than older metal printing methods....MORE
