From Zen Investor:
The current bull market is now 9 years old. That's an interesting fact, but how significant is it? Not very, in my opinion. Age isn't very relevant when trying to anticipate what lies ahead. More relevant are things like valuation, the health of the economy, the geopolitical landscape, and the mood of consumers and investors.Here are the worst performers that still trade:
I have my own views about where we are likely headed from here, and I've shared those views often, as many of you know. My approach is based on probability estimates of possible outcomes for the economy and the stock market. I use a 12 month time frame in my models, and when the probabilities of improving conditions are high, I advise clients to be aggressive with their risk profiles. As the probabilities begin to fade, I advise dialing back on risk in stages.
You can read about my methodology by visiting my blog, or my articles on SeekingAlpha and AdvisorPerspectives. Today I want to address the winners and losers since the last bear market ended in March 2009. What I hope to learn from this exercise is two things. First, are there any underlying trends that have endured throughout this 9 year bull market? And second, are there any stocks that seem well-positioned for continued success in an aging bull market? Conversely, are there stocks that should be avoided?
In an attempt to keep this research project manageable, I limited my search to the 1,500 stocks that are included in the S&P 1500. After eliminating those that were added to the index after the bull market began, I ended up with 1,322 names. They include large, mid, and small cap companies. They represent 16 market sectors (there are 11 "official" sectors, but I expanded that to 16 to get a little more granularity).
The Excel spreadsheet that I created encompasses price performance, market cap, current ratings from Zacks Investment Research, Thomson Reuters, S&P Global, and independent research providers. I will provide a summary of the top and bottom 10 names from this study, and I will make the full spreadsheet available to anyone who is interested in taking a deeper dive into the numbers....MUCH MORE
