One of our comments in December 2013's
Intertemporal Arbitrage: "Winning Big by Playing Long-Term Trends" (CNI; PNR)
...The point is, you don't have to be at the market every second You are afforded the luxury of just waiting for the perfect pitch.And today's headline story from The Dangerous Economist, February 28:
Now for a fund manager it get's tricky writing the quarterly report and saying "We didn't do much in Q3, we're waiting for Mr. Market to give us the high hanging curve ball" but if you've been honest with the investors that the tactic you've pulled from the toolbox is akin to the military's hurry-up-and-wait sense of time it is doable.
As a side note anyone who considers a move that is measured in weeks to be a trend is nuts. A trend is John Templeton going into the Japanese markets at 2 times earnings and catching a 40-fold move 1965-1989....
Four Decades Of Disinflation
Disinflation is when the inflation rate falls. Prices rise each year or time period, but the rate of increase falls. The table below shows the annual average inflation rate for decades starting with the 1950s. The 1970s had the highest average of 7.41%.
| Decade | AVG | HIGH | LOW |
| 1950s | 2.25% | 6.00% | -0.70% |
| 1960s | 2.53% | 6.20% | 0.70% |
| 1970s | 7.41% | 13.30% | 3.30% |
| 1980s | 5.14% | 12.50% | 1.10% |
| 1990s | 2.92% | 6.10% | 1.60% |
| 2000s | 2.54% | 4.10% | 0.10% |
| 2010s | 1.68% | 3.00% | 0.70% |
Related:
July 2011
“What should one do: predict specifics, or forecast broad trends that necessarily miss specifics?”
December 2015
Demographics and Deflation II: Longer Lives, Lower Interest Rates
