Monday, January 8, 2018

"Data Lining Up For The Fed’s Rate Hike Forecast"

From Tim Duy's Fed Watch;
Last Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a fairly lackluster employment report. In most ways, the story remains the same – steady improvement in the labor market but no signs of overheating in the form of wage growth. The mix will keep the Fed on track for three rate hikes this year, as the consensus policymaker will view this kind of report as a reason to neither accelerate nor slow the pace of tightening.
Nonfarm payrolls grew a less-then-expected 148k in December. Still, after some mildly net negative revisions to previous months, jobs grew an average of 205k per month over the final quarter of the year and 171k per month over the last twelve months. Unemployment held steady per expectations, but the pace of job growth remains well in excess of that necessary to pull the unemployment rate down in the months ahead. This is key for the Fed;...
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