“When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts.”

From the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford:
Posted on 13th June 2017

This paper reports the results from a large survey of machine learning researchers on their beliefs about progress in AI. The surveyed researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many domains in the next 40 years, such as translating languages (by 2024), driving a truck (by 2027), working in retail (by 2031), writing a bestselling book (by 2049), and working as a surgeon (by 2053). Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and of automating all human jobs in 120 years.

Asian respondents anticipate these dates much sooner than North Americans. The results of this study will inform discussion on trends in AI development amongst researchers and policymakers.

For more information on the paper and a wider ranging discussion on the subject, please see this post by lead researcher Katja Grace.

Access the full paper