Thursday, July 13, 2017

Calculating the Fed Funds Futures as Antipodeans Trade Higher

Two from Marc to Market, first up July 12:
US measures of core inflation fell from February through May. The US reports June CPI at the end of the week. There is a reasonable chance that the core rate stabilizes. However, the movement away from the target has spurred expressions of caution from numerous Fed officials, even though the minutes of the June FOMC meeting showed that most officials recognized transitory factors weighed on prices.

A careful reading of Fed comments led us to conclude that a consensus on reducing the balance sheet was intact, though a consensus for another hike may prove more difficult until there is more evidence for the official suspicion. Hence we look for the FOMC meeting in a fortnight to only modestly tweak the statement. In September we expect the Fed to announce that it will begin implementing its strategy to gradually reduce its balance sheet starting in October. Depending on the evolution of the economy and inflation, a third rate hike for the year could be delivered in December.

For the same of this exercise, let's assume that there is no chance of a hike before December. No chance may exaggerate it a bit, but probably not very much and it makes for a simpler exercise. Fed funds would likely trade around current levels, which is 116 bp on an average effective basis. This is what is averages for the first 12 days of December. On December 12, if the Fed were to hike rates, we should assume that the new effective average would by 25 bp higher or 141 bp.

That average could last 16 days to Friday, December 29. The effective average rate for the last trading day of the year typically falls post-crisis. Last year it fell by 11 bp. If we assume that the effective rate does the same thing this year, and recognizing that the Dec 29 effective average rate is the same for December 20 and 31, the weekend, Fed funds average 130 bp for the last three days of the month. When you do the math with these points, the outcome is an average of 130.25 bp for the month.

To conclude the exercise, recall that on no change in policy, the effective average rate should be what is today 116 bp. On a 25 bp rate hike, fair value is 130 bp. Currently, the Dec Fed funds contract is yielding 124.5 bp, or 8.5 bp of a possible 14 bp or about a 60% chance.

Another debate that appears to be intensifying among officials and investors is the relationship between reducing the Fed's balance sheet and tightening. We have always been skeptical that a certain change of the balance sheet is tantamount to change in interest rates. Leaving aside economic theory for this unprecedented policy course and looking simply at what happened under QE, it appears that the anticipation and signaling effect was what spurred the decline in yields more than the actual buying. This seemed to be the conclusion of the ECB's experience as well....MORE  
And today:

The US dollar is mostly consolidating yesterday's move. Sterling is pushing back through $1.29 as the hawks on the MPC may not have been dissuaded by disappointing PMI readings and the softer earnings growth. The table is being set for another 5-3 vote at next month's MPC meeting.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars are up about 0.6%, gaining nearly twice as much as sterling. The risk-off sentiment, softer yields in the US and Europe, and strong Chinese import data are among the drivers. The Australian dollar surged through the $0.7700 level to challenge a 15-month down trendline that is found near $0.7725. The high for the year was set in March at $0.7750....MORE