First a look at the one year chart:
Natural Gas Prices Fall on Mild Weather Forecasts
Unusually mild fall weather has raised the prospect of a warmer winter
Nov. 8, 2016 10:41 a.m. ETNatural gas prices fell Tuesday, reversing the previous day’s gains, as weather forecasts indicated that mild temperatures could persist across wide swaths of the country.The "raised the prospect of a warmer winter" bit is not a lock, If memory serves it works out to a 60/40 and if the winter is warmer it is usually snowier so we can go with some sand and/or salt trades.
Natural gas prices fell 12.4 cents, or 4.4%, to $2.692 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Updates to weather models showed that mild temperatures in the Midwest could be extended, even as cooler weather creeps in along the East Coast.
Unusually mild fall weather has raised the prospect of a warmer winter, which would mean less demand for natural gas for heating. Coupled with high production all year and a lingering glut, softer demand could mean that already elevated natural gas supplies will grow even further, analysts said.
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“This winter is really starting out even more bearish than last winter, and last winter was the most bearish on record,” said Kyle Cooper, a consultant for Ion Energy in Houston....MORE
And from Bloomberg, production (withdrawals) has not collapsed:
