That said we've been betting lower since three bucks and think there is an even money chance that by February futures could be testing two bucks.
Front futures down half a cent at $2.176, here's the last two weeks action via FinViz:
From the Energy Information Administration:
In the News:
Natural gas inventories post first net withdrawal of the season
Working storage inventories of natural gas fell to 3,956 billion cubic feet (Bcf) the week ending Friday, November 27, according to EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR), which was released earlier today. This drop signifies an informal start to the winter heating season. This year's injection season has been characterized by strong stock builds, record inventory levels, and changes in how EIA reports this weekly data.
The traditional end to the injection season is October 31; this year, however, injections continued through November 27 and reached 3,939 billion cubic feet, based on interpolation from weekly data. This level compares to 1,470 Bcf at the beginning of April (also derived from weekly data), and it represents a net overall injection of 2,469 during the April – October injection season. Although the end-of-October injection level falls short of last year's record-high injection season, when more than 2,746 Bcf was injected, the 2015 refill season is the second highest on record.
Year-over-year growth in natural gas production has allowed for growth in storage inventories. Despite some production declines in the first half of 2015, production rebounded to set three consecutive records this summer, in July, August, and September (the most recent month for which data are available). Although consumption of natural gas in the electric power sector was relatively high because of a seasonably hot summer and low natural gas prices, overall natural gas production still significantly exceeded consumption, allowing for a strong inventory build.
Because of warmer-than-normal weather this November, storage inventories were at record levels earlier this month. According to WNGSR, inventories reached the 4,000 Bcf threshold the week ending November 13, then broke that record the following week with an implied build of 9 Bcf. Current National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts call for a warmer-than-normal winter, which could limit withdrawals somewhat in the coming months....MORE
| Temperature -- heating & cooling degree days (week ending Nov 26) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HDD deviation from:
|
CDD deviation from:
| |||||||
| Region |
HDDCurrent
|
normal
|
last year
|
CDDCurrent
|
normal
|
last year
| ||
| New England |
175
|
-6
|
7
|
0
|
0
|
0
| ||
| Middle Atlantic |
167
|
-5
|
-9
|
0
|
0
|
0
| ||
| E N Central |
204
|
6
|
-22
|
0
|
0
|
0
| ||
| W N Central |
203
|
-20
|
-38
|
0
|
0
|
0
| ||
| South Atlantic |
126
|
9
|
2
|
13
|
2
|
0
| ||
| E S Central |
131
|
9
|
4
|
0
|
-1
|
0
| ||
| W S Central |
77
|
-9
|
0
|
7
|
3
|
2
| ||
| Mountain |
176
|
-16
|
-2
|
0
|
0
|
0
| ||
| Pacific |
82
|
-16
|
11
|
0
|
-1
|
0
| ||
| United States |
151
|
-5
|
-8
|
3
|
0
|
0
| ||
| Note: HDD = heating degree-day; CDD = cooling degree-day | ||||||||
