Climateer Investing: Oil: There's Bearish and There's Betting On $50/Barrel Bearish

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Oil: There's Bearish and There's Betting On $50/Barrel Bearish

As to an eventual bottom our models, apparently backdooring Goldman's, guess at $70. Did I say guess?
From Reuters:

Fund manager Andurand says US oil could fall to $50/bbl

Pierre Andurand, one of the most respected and successful fund managers in the oil industry, said he believed U.S. light crude oil could fall as low as $50 per barrel.

The U.S. benchmark oil price, also known as WTI, "will be volatile, but assuming no more supply disruptions, I think we can overshoot down to $50 a barrel," Andurand told Reuters on the sidelines of the Oil & Money conference on Wednesday.

"The move will mainly be in the front of the curve, but not just the first three months - the first six months or so," he said, adding that Brent would come down as well.

Andurand was co-founder of hedge fund BlueGold, which racked up record returns during the steep rise in oil prices in 2008 and the subsequent collapse in 2008-2009.

Bluegold's returns were lower in 2010, and the fund posted a loss the following year. Its co-founders eventually went their separate ways, and Andurand now runs a smaller hedge fund under his own name, which returned more than 25 percent last year and is up marginally year-to-date in 2014.

Andurand told the Oil and Money conference that he thought it unlikely that OPEC would cut production, even though current supply and demand trends suggested the market could be in a 2 million barrel-per-day surplus next year....MORE