Thursday, March 20, 2008

Markets: I Scream, Triple Dip

Among other duties (coffee A.M, turn out lights P.M.) I think of likely (and more importantly, unlikely) scenarios of where the markets might be heading.

One possibility I've been toying with is a double recession following the credit crunch. The way this would play out in the stock market is a rotation out of commodities (but keep an eye on wheat) by the hot money back into equities with a run back toward the old highs on the S &P.

Then as we hear a drumbeat of recession reports, Mr. Market gets despondent, the market heads south, takes out the March lows, Mr. Market gets suicidal, recession is officially announced and we go back up.

This second run up would fail just about the time it's announced that we've left recession and six to nine months later the recession of 2009 is announced.
It might be time to switch to the weekly charts, if this picture pans out we would show a series of lower highs and lower lows.

My scenarios are usually wrong, but they give me a framework to hang the minute-to-minute reality on.

I'm going out for some mint chocolate chip.*

From Yahoo Finance.
Want more control over the chart? Try our Interactive Chart.
Chart for S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)

*Timothy McVeigh asked for two pints of Ben & Jerry's as his last meal, the 168 people he murdered didn't get to choose theirs.