From Asia Times, December 30:
Critical minerals pact signals shift away from free trade deals toward supply chain security-focused partnerships
The new geopolitics of trade is no longer written in tariffs alone. It is etched into nickel seams, coded into battery supply chains and negotiated quietly in the language of “reciprocity.”
The recently finalized Indonesia–US tariff and critical minerals package is not just another trade deal. It is a signal flare for a world entering a more anxious, mineral-hungry age
By late 2025, Jakarta and Washington had converged on a framework that links reduced US tariff exposure — settling around 19% rather than the earlier threatened 32% — to expanded American access to Indonesia’s critical minerals, especially nickel.
The agreement, due for formal signing in early 2026, also reaches into digital trade, technology cooperation and the rollback of selected non-tariff barriers. On paper, it is transactional. In practice, it reshapes strategic leverage across the Indo-Pacific.
Nickel is the quiet protagonist of this story. Indonesia accounts for more than half of global nickel production and sits at the center of the electric-vehicle (EV) revolution. The International Energy Agency estimates that demand for nickel used in batteries could rise by nearly 100% by 2030 under net-zero scenarios.
For Washington, locked into strategic competition with China and acutely dependent on foreign mineral supplies, Indonesia is no longer just Southeast Asia’s largest economy. It is a pillar of future industrial security.
This explains why Indonesia’s deal differs from parallel US arrangements with Malaysia, Thailand or Vietnam. While those agreements also hover in the high-teens tariff range, Indonesia’s package cuts closer to the bone of the national development strategy....
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