From Bloomberg, December 19:
Looking ahead, the key issue will be the impact of the political uncertainties on investment and household spending.
Bonjour et Bienvenue to the Paris Edition. I’m Bloomberg Opinion columnist Lionel Laurent. If you haven’t yet, subscribe now to the Paris Edition newsletter. Paris Edition will be off next week and will return on Jan. 2.
A Christmas Miracle
With just a few days to go until Christmas, Santa’s statisticians have delivered something other than a lump of coal to France’s stressed-out government: Economic growth. Statistics agency Insee expects gross domestic product to rise 0.2% in the final three months of this year and 0.3% in each of the first two quarters of 2026 as domestic demand gets a little firmer. France appears to be “truly aboard the European recovery.”t’s true that the French economy has shown surprising resilience in the face of political chaos and revolving-door governments. Bloomberg Economics’ Jean Dalbard expects France next year to deliver potential growth of 1.1% (up from 0.8% this year.) He notes, however, that three main questions remain after ringing in the New Year: What is going to be the real outcome of ongoing budget tussles, will investment improve and will households choose to save or spend as political uncertainty persists?
There is rising optimism in all these areas, even as the Bank of France is serving up Scrooge-like warnings of a market backlash in the offing if plans to curb the deficit fail. The central bank’s growth forecasts are perking up in anticipation of better consumer spending and investment next year: French households have saved most of their gains in purchasing power since the post-Ukraine inflation shock, with the savings rate still above its pre-Covid average. The risk of growth-throttling spending cuts is receding.
The problem is that France isn’t operating in a vacuum. Budget uncertainty could see companies cut back while talent and wealth head elsewhere – with a top JPMorgan executive telling Bloomberg News this week that “uncertainty” would cap headcount. National politics could also deteriorate further as the 2027 presidential election gets closer. And the clear pressure of geopolitics is another unknown going into next year, with Brussels on the back foot as US tariffs and Chinese exports batter the auto sector. Amid all the celebration, it might be worth keeping the champagne on ice a little longer....
....MUCH MORE
And following on two discouraging posts we see the other Christmas Miracle.
France’s Post Office And Banking Arm Remain Offline
Santa's IT team is flying in to save Christmas.
Notre site est indisponible.
Nos équipes mettent tout en oeuvre afin de rétablir la situation au plus vite. Nous vous présentons nos excuses pour la gêne occasionnée.
