From Barron's, November 13:
Economists are betting that prices didn’t pick up much in October, but it could be weeks before they know for sure.
The government shutdown is set to end this week, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics will need some time to measure inflation after the latest, record-breaking lapse in federal funding. That means the October consumer price index won’t be released as expected on Thursday. Instead, the release will likely be delayed until early or mid-December, according to economists’ projections.
Still, the data available indicate that inflation levels largely held steady in October. Economists surveyed by FactSet estimate that inflation rose 0.2% over the month, translating to a gain of 3% year over year. While there’s no significant acceleration expected for October, CPI inflation is still running a full percentage point above the Fed’s 2% target.
That makes it more challenging for the Federal Reserve to justify further interest-rate cuts—especially when officials likely will still be missing key economic indicators at their Dec. 9-10 policy meeting.
October’s projected price growth would be a touch slower than the 0.3% month-over-month rate in September, though it would match September’s annual pace of 3%. The BLS released the September CPI measure during the government shutdown so that the Social Security Administration could make the necessary annual calculations for cost of living increases.
Core inflation, which also rose by 3% year over year in September, is expected to remain at that pace in October as well. The core measure, which excludes the more volatile food and energy costs, is expected to rise 0.3% month over month in October, an acceleration from the September’s 0.2% monthly pace.
In the absence of government data, economists are heavily monitoring the alternative data, though that is more limited for inflation. Data from PriceStats showed that inflation’s upward trend stalled somewhat in October, with a 0.2% monthly rise. The firm produces a monthly measure of price growth by using web-scraping technology to monitor prices of millions of online product sales. While the PriceStats series tends to be lower than the government’s CPI readings, it still parallels the metric’s overall trajectory.
PriceStats data revealed that household equipment, furniture, and electronics prices were all firmer in October, likely due to the impact of rising tariffs. Food prices were also higher than normal last month, though that was largely offset by lower transportation prices.
Similarly, the Adobe Digital Price Index showed that prices rose only 0.04% in October. That’s the second smallest October increase in the 12-year history of the series, according to UBS economist Alan Detmeister. That’s compared with the 0.08% increase recorded in October 2024....
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