Friday, June 13, 2025

Capital Markets: "Israel's Strike Lifts Dollar but only Modestly, Gold and Oil Rally"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: Israel attacked Iranian nuclear enrichment site and apparently targeted scientists and top Revolutionary Guard leadership. Reports suggest that that no increase in radioactivity has been detected. The US quickly indicated that while it was informed of the attack, it did not authorize it. President Trump did warn of a possible strike, but the press reports made it seem as if a strike was not imminent. The dollar is stronger against all the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies; However, the gains have been limited, and some will question the dollar's safe haven status. Equities are heavier, with most European bourses off 1.0-1.5%, while US index futures are off the equivalent. Asia Pacific bourses were off by less. 

Bond markets have not benefitted. European 10-year benchmark yields are mostly 2-4 bp higher. The 10-year US Treasury yield is off a single basis point to near 4.35%. Gold, which the ECB estimated earlier this week to have replaced the euro as the second most important reserve asset after the dollar, is up a little more than 1% in late European morning turnover near $3386. July WTI is up about 7.5% near $69. 

USD: Israel's strike on Iran has seen the Dollar Index recoup yesterday's losses that had seen it fall to a new three-year low in early North American turnover yesterday near 97.60. However....

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