Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Capital Markets: "Ho-Hum Market Reaction to US-China Agreement: US CPI and 10-year Note Auction Next Up"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The dollar is mostly a little firmer against the G10 currencies, though the euro and Swiss franc are notable exceptions but barely. US and Chinese negotiators have reportedly reached a joint understanding of the Geneva Agreement, but the impact on the foreign exchange market appears marginal at best. The dollar's consolidative tone against the major currencies seen in recent days remains intact. On the other hand, most emerging market currencies are firmer. Here the South Korean won is an exception. It is off 0.5% despite the sixth consecutive rally in the Kospi, which has lifted it to three-year highs. 

Indeed, the large Asia Pacific bourses rallied today with more than 1% gains in an index of mainland Chinese companies that trade in Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan. Europe's Stoxx 600 is slightly firmer after posting small losses for the past two sessions. US index futures are slightly lower, ahead of the May CPI and the $39 bln sale of 10-year notes. Benchmark 10-year yields are 2-3 bp firmer in Europe, though the UK Gilt, which outperformed yesterday on disappointing labor market developments, is underperforming today, with a 6 bp increase today. That leaves it off about 4 bp since the end of last week. The 10-year Treasury yield is a couple of basis points firmer near 4.50%. Gold is firm but holding below yesterday's high near $3350. July WTI is little changed in a narrow range near $65....

....MUCH MORE, including comments on the upcoming CPI report. 

Previously this morning: