From the San Francisco Standard, June 11:
Experts say it’ll take at least another decade (maybe two) for office vacancies to drop back to pre-pandemic levels
Imagine San Francisco 18 years from now. That’s more than four mayoral terms, at least one fashion cycle and nearly one Van Ness rapid bus lane project away. Generation Alpha—who will be adults—will likely be calling Gen Z “out of touch” by then.
And—according to new long-term projections from real estate firm Avison Young—San Francisco won’t be left with a glut of empty office buildings anymore. On that front, the situation midway through 2024 is pretty grim. The city has the highest vacancy rate of any major market in the country—at more than 30%.
Using previous recovery periods as a model, the firm’s research team projected three possible years in which the city’s vacancy rates might again fall under double digits, as it was before the pandemic, when the office vacancy rate was considered relatively healthy.
The absolute dream scenario is 2030, which would require six consecutive years of record-level leasing activity. More realistically, if such activity ends up matching the same level as the early 2010s, things could return to normal by 2033. But anything less than that would push things back to as far as 2042....
....MUCH MORE
And apparently the city's economy is being carried by the healthcare sector, which, after a certain point becomes more of a drag than an enhancer for an economy:
The SF economy is being carried by one industry these days—and it’s not AI
Something of a Bastiat's Window.
