Monday, June 10, 2024

Rabobank: "'Time For Some 3D Chess': Here's Why A Battered Macron Just Called Snap Elections"

From Rabobank via ZeroHedge, June 10: 

By Stefan Koopman, Senior macro strategist at Rabobank

The European elections saw the centre hold its ground, albeit narrowly. The European People’s Party is poised to secure 184 seats in the new 720-seat Parliament, with the Socialists and the centrist Renew obtaining 139 and 80 seats respectively. This totals 403 seats for the grand coalition, a decrease from their current 417 seats in the old 705-seat Parliament. The hard-right ECR alliance of Giorga Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia and the Polish nationalists are projected to rank fourth, with 73 seats, while the far-right Identity & Democracy group is expected to gain 58 seats. The Greens suffered a significant loss, dropping to sixth place with 52 seats, with the Left following at 36 seats, a slight decrease. There are also 45 seats for non-attached members, and 53 newly elected members that are not allied to any of the political groups yet. The overall left-right balance aligns with projections that indicated a lean but not a lurch to the right.