Wednesday, June 5, 2024

Capital Markets: "Yen Unwinds Yesterday's Gains, while the Mexican Peso and Indian Rupee Stabilize"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The foreign exchange market is calmer today than Monday and Tuesday, and the dollar is mixed. The yen, which rallied, yesterday, has given back most of its gains and the wage data gave the market second thoughts about next week's BOJ meeting. The Mexican peso, which has been sold aggressively in the face of the strong election showing of the Morena party and allies, is the strongest currency today, though the greenback is holding above yesterday's lows. The Indian rupee is the second strongest and its stock market is recouping more than half of yesterday's steep losses. The highlight of today's North American session is the Bank of Canada meeting. The swaps market has about an 80% chance of a cut discounted. A cut today would make the Bank of Canada the third G10 central bank to cut rates (behind Switzerland and Sweden) and the first in the G7. If it does not cut rates, a move next month would likely be signaled.

Japanese, Chinese and Hong Kong stocks fell but the other large bourses in the region rose. Europe's Stoxx 600 has recouped most of yesterday's losses, which snapped a three-day advance. US index futures are firm. Asia Pacific yields fell after the sharp decline in US rates yesterday. European benchmark yields have edged up and the UK 10-year Gilt yield is up nearly four basis points. Sunak-Starmer's first debate was mixed. Sunak was seen as the winner, but Starmer was thought to be more "likeable". Gold is consolidating in a range of about $2326-$2342, inside yesterday's range. July WTI has stabilized after falling to a four-month low yesterday slightly below $72.50. It is steady today and has not been above $73.55. Europe's natgas benchmark pulled back yesterday and is a little softer today. It is below last week's settlement. US natgas prices also sold off yesterday, retracing most of Monday's gain. It is slightly firmer today and is above last week's settlement.... 

....MUCH MORE