Tuesday, June 11, 2024

Capital Markets: "Greenback Remains Firm, Still Driest Towel on the Rack"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview:  The US dollar is firm against all the G10 currencies, except for sterling, which is straddling unchanged levels after labor market report that showed an uptick earnings remain elevated, and the unemployment rate ticked up to a new high since September 2021. The dollar reached a new six-day high against the Japanese yen near JPY157.40. The Chinese yuan (onshore) fell to new lows since last November as the mainland markets re-opened from the holiday-long weekend. Most emerging market currencies are lower, including the Mexican peso, which has become unhinged amid heightened political uncertainty. The peso staged a bit of a recovery in late North American dealings but came under pressure again as president-elect Sheinbaum encouraged the discussion of judicial reform.

European bonds, especially French bonds, remain under pressure following the EU Parliament election and the snap French election at the end of the month. German debt is still seen as a safe haven, while French, Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese 10-year yields are at new six-month highs. Ahead of the US sales of $39 bln 10-year notes today, the 10-year yield is off about three basis points to 4.43%. Yesterday's three-year note tailed, extending the streak of weak direct bidder participation. Equities are under pressure today. South Korea and India are exceptions in Asia Pacific where Australia's 1.3% drop led the move lower. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off for the third consecutive session, the longest losing streak in a month. US index futures are also softer. Gold is consolidating in a narrow range (~$2298-$2213). July WTI is little changed after rallying almost 3% yesterday, its biggest rally of the year amid concern that supply/demand considerations are more favorable ahead of the IEA report tomorrow....