Tuesday, June 4, 2024

Capital Markets: "Dollar Recovers from Yesterday's Slide, but Slumps Against the Yen"

From Marc to Market:

Overview: The dollar's losses scored after yesterday's disappointing ISM manufacturing report were extended initially in Asia Pacific turnover earlier today before it recovered. The recovery has stretched the intraday momentum indicators, warning against expected strong follow-through dollar buying in North America, without fresh impetus. Amid position adjusting and crosses unwinding, the yen is resisting the dollar's recovery and is the strongest of the G10 currencies. A slightly firmer than expected Swiss CPI has seen the market shave the odds of a SNB rate hike late this month. This is allowing the franc to recover a little too. The other G10 currencies are lower. Most emerging market currencies are weaker, as well. The South African rand and Mexican peso are off slightly more than 1%. Modi's victory in India seems smaller than it did yesterday, and the rupee is also among the weakest emerging market currencies today.

Indian stocks are giving back yesterday's gains plus today, sliding more than 5%. Except for China and Hong Kong, most bourses in the Asia Pacific region fell today. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off 0.8% giving back the past two days of gains in full. US index futures are also softer. Asia Pacific bonds played catch-up after the strong rally in the US yesterday. European benchmark yields are mostly 1-2 bp lower. The 10-year Treasury yield is flat near 4.39% after falling 11 bp yesterday. Gold recovered yesterday and settled above $2350 but has come back heavier today and looks poised to test yesterday's low (~$2315). July WTI that was testing $80 last week has been sold below $73 to its lowest level since early February. Lastly, natgas surged yesterday on Norway's plant outage, but it is recovering today. The Dutch benchmark was up over 5% yesterday and is off almost 3.8% today. US prices jumped 6.5% yesterday and are flattish today....

....MUCH MORE