Sunday, September 18, 2022

With The Return Of Oktoberfest: A Look At The Economics And Methane Emissions Of The World's Largest Volksfest

First up, from United Press International (also on blogroll at right), September 17:

Oktoberfest returns to Germany after two-year pandemic absence

Shaking off a two-year hiatus necessitated by the COVID-19 pandemic, Germany's Oktoberfest celebration officially returned Saturday when the mayor of Munich tapped the first keg of beer.

Shortly before noon, Lord Mayor Dieter Reiter used three swings of the mallet to traditionally tap the first barrel of Oktoberfest beer at the Schottenhamel Festival Hall in Munich amid cheers from a crowd shouting, "O'zapft is! To a peaceful Wien (Oktoberfest)!"....

....MUCH MORE

Oktoberfest home (English)

And a couple of reposts

Unicredit on the Economics of Oktoberfest

Should their employer (Creditanstalt 2.0)* fail, these guys may be out of a job.
Let's hope someone, somewhere considers this a résumé buffer-upper.
From C-A Unicredit Economics and FI/FX Research:

Oktoberfest 2011:
A somewhat different safe haven
It’s that time of year again. This Saturday, at the stroke of 12 noon, the mayor of Munich will ceremoniously tap the first keg of beer and declare "O'zapft is" ("It is tapped"). The world’s largest fair will then open its doors to the public. The Oktoberfest traces its roots back to the festivities held to celebrate the marriage of Bavaria’s Crown Prince Ludwig to Princess Therese of Saxe-Hildburghausen on 12 October 1810. Since then, the Oktoberfest has been held every year on the Theresienwiese (or Wiesn for short), named in honor of the Crown Princess – except for 24 times, when it was canceled due to epidemics and the two world wars. This year, the event is being repeated for the 178th time.

Last year, the Oktoberfest bicentennial marked a new record for beer consumption (see chart). The temporary slump in beer sales during the financial market crisis and the subsequent deep recession was therefore quickly reversed. However, the figures for the bicentennial were biased somewhat by special factors. First, the Oktoberfest was extended by one day, i.e. 17 days instead of the usual 16. Second, capacities were expanded: There were two new traditional beer tents. As a result, the number of available seats increased from roughly 105,000 by over 8,000. But even adjusted for these effects, the recovery was substantial. Hence, the capacities were well utilized. On the final weekend, access to the entire Wiesn site had to be shut off for several hours due to overcrowding.

Despite the still smoldering EMU debt crisis, the real economy in Germany as well as in Bavaria was still relatively unscathed up until mid-year 2011. However, transmission risks remain high, as reflected in extremely nervous financial markets. And the strong slowdown of the global economy has meanwhile also considerably clouded the growth prospects in Germany. Hence, does this mean that business at the Oktoberfest will weaken again already this year? To better assess this, we take a look at the structure of the Wiesn economy....MORE (7 page PDF)
*No really! Unicredit owns Creditanstalt!

And:

"Methane Emissions from the Munich Oktoberfest"

From the journal Atmospheric and Chemical Physics:
Preprint. Discussion started: 22 October 2019
Abstract.
This study presents the first investigation of the methane (CH4) emissions of a big festival. In 2018 we measured the CH4 emissions of Munich Oktoberfest, the world’s largest folk festival, using in-situ measurements combined with a Gaussian plume dispersion model. Oktoberfest is a potential source for CH4 as a high amount of natural gas for cooking and heating isused.
Measurements were performed by walking and biking around the perimeter of the Oktoberfest premises (Theresienwiese) at different times of the day, during the week and at the weekend. The measurements show enhancements of up to 100 ppb compared to background values and measurements performed after Oktoberfest. The average emission flux of Oktoberfest is determined as(6.7±0.6)μg/(m2s). Additional analyses, including the daily emission cycle and comparisons between emissions and the number of visitors, suggest that CH4 emissions of Oktoberfest are not only due to the human biogenic emissions; it is likely that fossil fuel CH4 emissions, such as incomplete combustion or loss in the gas appliances, are the major contributors to Oktoberfest emissions.
Our results can help to develop CH4 reduction policies and measures to reduce emissions at festivals and other major events in cities. Furthermore, events with a limited duration have not yet been included in the state-of-the-art emission inventories,such as TNO-MACC, EDGAR or IER. Our investigations show that these emissions are not negligible. Therefore, these events should be included in future emission inventories.
...MUCH MORE (25 page PDF)

Yeah, I got yr Gaussian plume right here.

Despite the "...it is likely that fossil fuel CH4 emissions, such as incomplete combustion..." my bet is that old Heinz mit the wurst and the bier is giving those fossil fuels a run for their CH4 money.

A few highlights of the research:
We have compared the determined total emission flux with bottom-up estimates of biogenic emissions from human...

... Since we were not allowed to enter the festival area due to safety concerns...

...3.4 Biogenic human CH4emissions
To address the question whether the people themselves caused the emissions or whether the emissions were caused by processes that are related to the number of visitors, such as cooking, heating, sewage, etc., we took a closer look at human biogenic emissions....
That is research dedication my friends.