It's not going to happen on the scale required and the people pitching the substitution of electric vehicles for internal combustion power have known this for twenty years. Anyone with a calculator has known this for twenty years.
As we've pointed out it appears that the ICE vehicles will be forced off the road before there are replacements, in exactly the same way that the European energy crisis was created by making coal, natural gas and in Germany's case nuclear power generation, illegal before you have a replacement ready to go.
From industry data mavens, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, September 6:
More than 300 new mines could need to be built over the next decade to meet the demand for electric vehicle and energy storage batteries, according to a Benchmark forecast.
At least 384 new mines for graphite, lithium, nickel and cobalt are required to meet demand by 2035, based on average mine sizes in each industry, according to Benchmark. Taking into account recycling of raw materials, the number is around 336 mines.
The data highlights the height of the raw material challenge facing global automakers as they look to scale up production of electric vehicles this decade. Demand for lithium ion batteries is set to grow six-fold by 2032, according to Benchmark.
Yet supplies of lithium, graphite, nickel and cobalt will need to keep pace with demand, especially post 2030.
While recycling of raw materials will have the most impact on future cobalt supply, it’s not yet set to have much impact on materials such as graphite, according to Benchmark.
Though given the shorter lead time to build recycling facilities, new recycling technologies could displace some of the new mine requirements.
Graphite requirements
To meet demand for anode materials, an estimated 97 natural flake graphite mines will need to be built, assuming an average size of 56,000 tonnes a year and no contribution from recycling.
Natural graphite is normally mixed with synthetic graphite in lithium ion battery anodes.
There are currently over 70 mines operating globally with the majority located in China and Africa.
Current lithium ion battery recycling has focused on recovering the battery cathode materials rather than the anode, but recycling projects are starting to discuss recovery of anode materials too. Recycling and recovery of graphite is needed to reduce the dependence on mined materials.
For synthetic graphite, which is produced using pet needle coke or coal tar pitch a total of 54 plants with an average size of 57,000 tonnes will need to be built by 2035, according to Benchmark.
If the amount of silicon added to the battery anode increases more than Benchmark expects, however, then the number of new graphite mines needed would be lower.
Lithium Rush....
....MUCH MORE
HT New Atlas: "Lithium resource squeeze could put the brakes on decarbonization"
At the moment copper and silver prices are being driven (lower) mostly by the strength of the dollar, and to a lesser extent by the unbelievable reality that we have real rates at negative 4 to 5% finally pulling closer to 0%. Supply/demand are currently in approximate balance with the recession coming in U.S. housing and a depression coming in Chinese shelter construction being offset by increased demand for wind turbines and electric vehicles.
These macro forces are why we've been negative on copper's price since $4.40 and continue to think the $3.13 July low will be tested with a real possibility of sub-$3.00 for a while.
Futures $3.2930.
If interested see also:
"Tesla’s battery metals bill balloons to $100 billion" (TSLA)
"Inside Tesla’s drive to keep Musk’s battery promise" (TSLA)
EVs Are Becoming More Expensive, Not Less (plus Ford won't let you buy at lease-end)
....Higher prices + higher interest rates for folks who don't buy for cash, or lease, means the dream of mass-market electric vehicles is receding toward the horizon, which also means the economies of scale in traditionally powered vehicles won't be matched in EV's for a few more years at minimum meaning we see headlines such as this at Mining.com on June 23:...
