And as we've noted over the years GDPNow tends to a stronger GDP than the BEA's first estimate.
The Open Market Committee meets July 26-27 while the next GDPNow is scheduled for July 27. Here's the Atlanta Fed's current opinion:
....Latest estimate: -1.6 percent — July 19, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.6 percent on July 19, down from -1.5 percent on July 15. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from -8.8 percent to -10.1 percent.
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, July 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
As an example of the Atlanta model running hotter than actual here is the final forecast before the Advance Estimate for Q1:
....Latest estimate: 0.4 percent — April 27, 2022
The final GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 0.4 percent on April 27, unchanged from April 26 after rounding. After this morning's Advance Economic Indicators report from the US Census Bureau, an increase in the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth was offset by a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real net exports.
This is the last GDPNow forecast for the first quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the second quarter of 2022 will be on Friday, April 29. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
On April 28 the BEA came in at down 1.4% (later revised by the third estimate to down 1.6%):
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 6.9 percent....
....MUCH MORE
Life was simpler when the New York Fed was publishing their NOWcast as that forecast and the Atlanta Fed forecast tended to converge as we approached the BEA release and would usually bracket the flash estimate.
