From 19FortyFive, July 17:
James Stavridis, a former NATO supreme allied commander for Europe, said on Sunday that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will likely conclude in four to six months, with a “frozen conflict” ending similar to the Korean War.
Stavridis discussed the state of the war during a WABC 770 AM radio interview with New York businessman John Catsimatidis, where he remarked that it was “extremely obvious” the conflict has “bogged down on both sides.”
“The Ukrainians are putting up a very strong fight,” Stavridis said. “[Vladimir] Putin’s war plans have proven to be not particularly effective. He has gained a little bit of territory over what he started the conflict with.”
He continued: “I see this one headed toward a Korean War ending, which is to say an armistice, a militarized zone between the two sides, ongoing animosity, kind of a frozen conflict. Look for that in a four-to-six-month period. Neither side can sustain it much beyond that.”
The Korean War was fought between North and South Korea between 1950 and 1953, with the then-Soviet Union backing North Korea while South Korea was aided by the United States. The conflict between the two countries ceased with an armistice in July 1953, which created a demilitarized zone.
However, because no formal peace treaty was signed in the ensuing years, the two countries still technically remain at war....
....MUCH MORE
Admiral Stavridis is very sharp but he's no Alfred Thayer Mahan.
The thing to remember about officers at his level is that they are as much politicians as they are military strategists, for Stavridis that is most exemplified by his current positions as Managing Director of the Carlyle Group, and Chair of the Board of Trustees of the Rockefeller Foundation.
Previously on the Admiral:
"How To Avoid A Naval Cold War In The High North"....The Admiral's book title [Sea Power: The History and Geopolitics of the World’s Oceans] is remarkably similar to that of Captain Mahan's "The Influence of Sea Power upon History". I've read the latter and not the former but if I had to guess, I'd say the Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard's thinking is closer to Mahan's than to Admiral Stavridis':
“We need to look differently at what an icebreaker does... We need to reserve space, weight and power if we need to strap a cruise missile package on it... U.S. presence in the Arctic is necessary for more than just power projection; it’s a matter of national security... If they remain unchecked, the Russians will extend their sphere of influence to over five million square miles of Arctic ice and water.”And:
Bloomberg Opinion: "China’s Targeting Underwater Internet Cables"
The writer, James Stavridis, is about as wired into the military industrial complex as it gets.
Not that there's anything wrong with that....
