This is one of the links that Mr. Bhadrakumar had in the earlier post, "Ukraine peace talks in the cards?". It was published on July 11, i.e. a week before today's move by Russia: "Russia's Gazprom declares force majeure on some gas supplies to Europe" and unless I'm projecting (what's a German word for schadenfreude?) China seems to be gloating in this op-ed from the Communist Party mouthpiece, China Daily:
Germany had a trade deficit of €1 billion ($1.02 billion) in May, according to the Federal Statistical Office of Germany. This was largely because of a surge in import costs. The average price of imported goods in Germany rose 31.7 percent compared with the same period last year, while the price of natural gas, mineral oil and crude oil rose 301.2 percent, 106.6 percent and 77.5 percent respectively from the same period last year.
More than 60 percent of the energy Germany consumes is from imports, and its dependence rate on imported natural gas is even higher. That's why many German companies have been hit hard by soaring energy prices.
This creates a downward spiral: the more a company produces, the more it loses. So German export orders will start to fall in the coming months, and it is not necessarily because of falling external demand, but its own reluctance to produce.
As such, while a €1 billion trade deficit is small for Germany, it does not bode well, as the country has not seen a trade deficit since 1991, and therefore it raises a question about whether the German economy is heading for recession. Some started asking the question in March, and now more and more people believe that a recession seems unavoidable.
The German economy contracted in 1993 after East and West Germany merged; in 1999 after the Deutsche mark was replaced by the euro; and in 2009 after the global financial crisis.
However, thanks to its manufacturing prowess, the German economy has been resilient enough to survive every downturn. The international financial crisis and the European debt crisis have even given Germany more clout in Europe than it used to have.
Germany is now entering another period of economic decline. But it is more or less of its own making this time－Germany is paying the cost of allowing the United States to take control of Europe, and its participation in the sanctions against Russia....
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China is Germany's #1 competitor in quite a few export industries.
[I'm not projecting, its just that you don't get all that many chances to use that old joke]
