First up, the predictions going in, from FX Empire:
...According to Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI), “A Bloomberg survey found estimates ranging from a pull of 124 Bcf to a decrease of 146 Bcf, with a median forecast for a 138 Bcf decline in stockpiles. A Reuters poll found withdrawal estimates spanning from 118 Bcf to 158 Bcf and a median estimate of a 135 Bcf decline.”
“A Wall Street Journal poll, meanwhile, landed at an average pull of 137 Bcf, though estimates ranged from a decrease of 119 Bcf to a decline of 158 Bcf. NGI modeled a 135 Bcf withdrawal.”
Last year, the EIA recorded a 44 Bcf decrease for the comparable year-ago period.
Last week, the EIA reported a 114 Bcf withdrawal for the week-ending December 25. Analysts on average had anticipated a pull in the mid-120s Bcf. Total working gas in storage fell to 3,460 Bcf, which was 251 Bcf above year-ago levels and 206 Bcf above the five-year average....
And the report from the Energy Information Administration:
Working gas in storage was 3,330 Bcf as of Friday, January 1, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 130 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 138 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 201 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,129 Bcf. At 3,330 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Finally, the price action over the last week from the CME (30-minute bars):
