From Blackstone, January 4:
New York, January 4, 2021 – Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman together with Joe Zidle, Chief Investment Strategist in the Private Wealth Solutions group at Blackstone, today issued their list of the Ten Surprises of 2021. This is the 36th year Byron has given his views on a number of economic, financial market and political surprises for the coming year. Byron defines a “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is “probable,” having a better than 50% likelihood of happening. Byron started the tradition in 1986 when he was the Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley. Byron joined Blackstone in September 2009 as a senior advisor to both the firm and its clients in analyzing economic, political, market and social trends. In 2018, Joe Zidle joined Byron Wien in the development of the Ten Surprises.
Byron and Joe’s Ten Surprises of 2021 are as follows:
- Former President Trump starts his own television network and also plans his 2024 campaign. His lead program is The Chief, in which he weekly interviews heads of state and CEOs with management styles like his own. His virtual interview with Vladimir Putin draws more viewers than any television program in history.
- Despite the hostile rhetoric from both sides during the U.S. presidential campaign, President Biden begins to restore a constructive diplomatic and trade relationship with China. China A shares lead emerging markets higher.
- The success of between five and ten vaccines, together with an improvement in therapeutics, allows the U.S. to return to some form of “normal” by Memorial Day 2021. People are generally required to show proof of vaccination before boarding airplanes and attending theaters, movies, sporting events and other large gatherings. The Summer Olympics, postponed last year, are held in July with spectators allowed to physically attend.
- The Justice Department softens its case against Google and Facebook, persuaded by the argument that the consumer actually benefits from the services provided by these companies. Certain divestitures are proposed and surveillance restrictions are applied, but the broad effort to break them up loses support, except in Europe.
- The economy develops momentum on its own because of pent-up demand, and depressed hospitality and airline stocks become strong performers. Fiscal and monetary policy remain historically accommodative. Nominal economic growth for the full year exceeds 6% and the unemployment rate falls to 5%. We begin the longest economic cycle in history, surpassing the cycle that lasted from 2010 to 2020....
....MUCH MORE
Some previous lists:Blackstone's Byron Wien: "...The Ten Surprises of 2020"
Blackstone's Byron Wien reflects on his 10 Surprises of 2019.
"Byron Wien Announces Ten Surprises for 2019"
Byron Wien Announces Ten Surprises for 2017 (with six also-rans)
Blackstone's Byron Wien: What’s Ahead for the Markets (2016)
Blackstone Group's Byron Wien Updates "10 Surprises for 2010"
