Sunday, May 3, 2020

"Shedlock: 40% Of Oil Producers Are Headed For Bankruptcy"

From Mike "Mish" Shedlock via Real Investment Advice, April 22:

Based on forward charts at least 40% of US oil producers are headed for bankruptcy.
Inquiring minds are diving into the Kansas City Fed Energy Survey by Chad Wilkerson, to get a better grip on problems facing oil producers. The results are grim.

“District energy activity fell sharply during the first quarter of 2020, with our index dropping to its  lowest level since we began the survey in early 2014,” said Wilkerson. “Expectations for future activity also fell to their lowest level since late 2014, as most firms do not expect energy prices to return to profitable levels this year.”

WTI Survey Price Expectations
Kansas City Fed Energy Survey - Price Expectations 2020-04-21

  • 6 Months: $33
  • 1 Year: $42
  • 2 Years: $50
  • 5 Years: $58
Solvency
Kansas City Fed Energy Survey - Solvency Expectations 2020-04-21
61 percent of firms would  remain solvent in the next year if the WTI price of oil would stay at $30 per barrel, and 64 percent of firms would remain solvent if the WTI price of oil would stay at $40....
....MUCH MORE