Monday, May 18, 2020

Pricing For Q4 2020 European Power Market Is Jumping Around On EDF Nuke Guidance

This is one of the Commodity Tracker: 5 charts to watch this week from S&P Global Platts, May 18: 

4. EU power market jumpy on drip-drip of EDF nuclear guidance

EU winter power
What’s happening? French Q4 2020 power prices climbed over 40% after EDF slashed its 2020 nuclear output target in April, but some of these gains were lost last week as Q4 availability improved in the latest maintenance adjustments, and EDF management hinted the current maintenance schedule was not set in stone, with winter supply security of overriding importance.

What’s next: Almost anything EDF says about nuclear is market moving and sure enough, the generator’s May 14 comment that its dire winter reactor availability outlook was “cautious” sliced around 12% off the fourth quarter French power contract. Traders must be exhausted by the eternal vigilance required as EDF pumps out daily updates on reactor availability, but there is no let-up in view. This is partly because of other hard-to-predict outcomes relating to the easing of lockdowns and the timing of new interconnection projects between France, the UK and Italy. The 2-GW IFA2 link between the UK and France remains on course for Q3 testing, potentially doubling trading capacity and easing supply concerns – if schedules hold together....
....MORE (the other four charts)

HT: ZeroHedge