Friday, May 15, 2020

"London could be ‘coronavirus free’ by June as daily cases plummet"

I'm guessing London will not be "coronavirus-free" but the progress is remarkable.

From Metro UK:
The capital could be rid of coronavirus sooner than you think, as new modelling suggests the city is recording only 24 new cases a day.

The ‘R’ reproduction rate has fallen to 0.4 in London, with the number of new cases halving every 3.5 days, according to analysis by Cambridge University and Public Health England. It was initially the hub of the UK’s outbreak and was considered to be weeks ahead of the rest of the country.

When the lockdown was imposed on March 23 it was being hit by around 200,000 new cases per day, but modelling suggests it could be free of fresh diagnoses by next month. The team of researchers estimate around 1.8 million people in London (20%) have already had the disease, suggesting they could have a higher level of immunity, making it harder for the bug to spread.

However it’s a different story for the North East of England, which is recording around 4,000 infections every day. The country is still making progress overall, as data shows the R value in England is 0.75, below the 1.0 set out by Boris Johnson as a requirement for easing lockdown rules. Research suggests the rate in the North East and Yorkshire is 0.8, compared to 0.76 in the South West, 0.73 in the North West, 0.71 in the East of England and 0.68 in the Midlands.

The team of researchers say between 10 and 24 people in London had caught coronavirus on May 10. But PHE-Cambridge projection, based on death data from both bodies, has been called into question by some experts, who say the rate in London is ‘extremely unlikely to be so low’....