Sunday, February 9, 2020

And Why Are LNG Exports So Important to The Natural Gas Storage Report?

I've mentioned that more and more, LNG exports are factoring into estimates of natural gas in storage ahead of the official EIA Thursday reports. here's an example from the last week of January, 2020:
...Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that a total of 21 tankers with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 75 Bcf departed the United States between January 23 and January 30.

This compares to 15 liquefied natural gas carriers with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 54 Bcf, that departed U.S. LNG export facilities in the previous week.
Out of the 21 cargoes, eight departed Cheniere’s Sabine Pass facility, four departed Freeport LNG plant, three were shipped from the Corpus Christi and one each from Cove Point, Elba Island and Cameron LNG.

EIA further noted that natural gas deliveries to liquefied natural gas export terminals jumped compared to the previous week reaching 9.2 Bcf/day, up from 8.2 Bcf/d....
LNG World News, January 31
With China breaking contractual commitments* that gas either has to go to Europe or it has to go into storage.
Here's the export report fort the week ended Feb. 5, reported at LNG World News Feb. 7:
U.S. weekly LNG exports slip
*Total and Royal Dutch Shell Reject Chinese Declaration of Force Majeure on LNG Contracts

Some prior mentions of the topic:
EIA Natural Gas Weekly Update, October 17, 2019
LNG has become more of a factor in the Thursday storage numbers, to the point that the timing of just one or two ships will change the injection/withdrawal numbers.
It makes life interesting.... 

EIA Natural Gas Weekly Update December 19, 2019 (think LNG)

and many more, we've actually been kinda harping on the interplay, use the 'search blog' box if interested.

March WTI futures down 5.7 cents (3.07%) at 1.8010, after trading as low as $1.788.
The price target after the last storage report is getting closer:
EIA Natural Gas Storage Report February 6, 2020 Meh
The bulls are running out of winter and unless the producers can find buyers in Europe for LNG, Henry Hub could see $1.70 before spring.
And another cool spring akin to 2019 and you could see a half-dozen major bankruptcies among the E&P folks (looking at you EQT, CHK)