Tuesday, July 16, 2019

"China's growth has ground down to a 27-year low, and its economy probably can't go on like this"

From Business Insider:
  • China's GDP for the second quarter grew at its slowest rate since the global financial crisis in 2008, 6.2%.
  • This weak print is the result of a combination of factors — China's trade war with the US, deleveraging, and structural weakness in China's banking system.
  • And while some economic data started trending more positively in June, the weak GDP print is a sign that policymakers will soon have to be more aggressive about stabilizing the economy.
China's GDP grew at 6.2% in the second quarter, its slowest growth rate since 1992. And while there was some positive economic news in the month of June — the last month of the quarter — this GDP print means that soon policymakers will have to act in order to keep the economy growing, according to analysts.

In short, Q2 was bad. And there's a chance Q3 will be less bad, but it's not a signal that China's economy is stabilizing yet. For the past few months policymakers have been engaging in targeted easing. Instead of just spraying credit everywhere, they've tried to get it where it's needed most — to households and to the struggling private sector, for example.

Analysts have been saying for some time now that those measures aren't enough to blunt the force of the trade war and China's own domestic issues working against growth though. And despite a few bright-ish spots in June's data, that still stands.

Here's a rundown of a few happier June data points, some of which — according to analyst Wei Yao over at Societe Generale — simply don't make much sense....MORE