Wednesday, September 12, 2018

As You Can Tell From The Wheat Chart, The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates For September Are Out

Here's FinViz Wheat (5-minute chart):

https://screenshotscdn.firefoxusercontent.com/images/46fee339-ba61-417a-abaf-e15f38e0a065.png

And here's the WASDE from the USDA Office of the Chief Economist:
WHEAT: The U.S. 2018/19 wheat supply and demand estimates are unchanged from last month. There are offsetting by-class changes for both exports and imports . The season- ave rage farm price range is unchanged at the midpoint of $5.10 per bushel and the range is narrowed $0.20 per bushel to $4.70 to $5.50.

Global wheat supplies for 2018/19 are raised 4.7 million tons on a 3.4- million -ton production increase and higher beginning stocks. The Russian crop is raised 3.0 million tons on harvest results to date in the winter wheat region and continued excellent weather in the spring wheat belt. Kazakhstan is raised 0.5 million tons also on excellent spring wheat conditions. Prod uction is increased 2.7 million tons in India to a record 99.7 million on updated government data. These increases are partially offset by a 2.0- million -ton decrease in Australia and a 1.0- million -ton decrease in Canada, both reflecting continued dry conditions during the growing season. Global exports are lowered 2.5 million tons with a 2.0- million -ton reduction for Australia and a 0.5- million -ton reduction for Canada, both on smaller crops. Indonesia and Iran imports are down 1.0 million tons and 0.5 m illion tons, respectively. Global use is raised 2.3 million tons primarily on a 2.0- million -ton increase for Russia feed and residual use and a 1.0- million -ton increase for EU feed and residual use. With total supplies rising faster than use, global endi ng stocks are raised 2.3 million tons to 261.3 million but are 5 percent below last year’s record.

 COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production , increased domestic use, greater exports, and higher ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.827 billion bushels, up 241 million from last month on an increased yield forecast. If realized, the crop would be the second highest on record. Among the major producing states, yields are forecast to be record high in Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Indiana, Ohio, and South Dakota. Corn supplies are higher from last month, as a larger crop more than offsets a small decline in beginning stocks due to higher estimated exports for 2017/18. Feed and residual use for 2018/19 is raised 50 million bushels with a larger crop and lower expected prices. Corn used for ethanol is raised 25 million bushels. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are up 90 million bushels from last month. The season- average corn price received by producers is projected 10 cents lower with a midpoint of $3.50 per bushel.

Global coarse grain production for 2018/19 is forecast up 5.1 million tons to 1,347.2 million. The 2018/19 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, greater consumption, increased trade, and reduced stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher than last month with projected increases for the EU, Angola, Paraguay, Turkey, and Serbia more than offsetting declines for Canada, South Africa, and Guatemala. EU corn production is raised, mostly reflecting increases for Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, and France. In both Bulgaria and Romania, yields are expected to be record high.

World barley production... 
...MUCH MORE (40 page PDF)

Here's today's corn chart, also via FinViz:

https://screenshotscdn.firefoxusercontent.com/images/be65e73f-3c7e-4646-9c4a-ce16b4b914b3.png