Monday, December 11, 2017

Ag Commodities Ahead of Tomorrow's USDA WASDE Report

From Blue Line Express at Inside Futures:

Corn, Beans, & Wheat Ahead of Tomorrows USDA Report
CORN (March)
Last Weeks Close: March corn futures finished Friday up 1 cent, trading in a range of 2 cents. Funds were estimated to have been buyers of 3,500 contracts. On the week, March corn futures finished 6 cents lower and traded in a 10-cent range for the week. Fridays commitment of traders report showed that funds hold a net short position of 160,519 contracts, this versus laws weeks -196,763; a reduction of 36,244. Keep in mind that this data is compiled through Tuesday. We saw the funds holding a record net short position of 230,556 in the middle of November, that position has decreased 70,037 or 30%.

Fundamentals: Tomorrows USDA report will likely be the highlight of the week in terms of new news coming across the wire that doesnt involve weather forecasts. The average analyst estimate for US corn carryout is at 2.478 billion bushels with estimates ranging from 2.394-2.517billion bushels. The average estimate for world ending stocks is 202.72mt with the range being 195.7-205mt. Once we get through the USDA report the attention will shift back to weather and crop development in South America.

Technicals: Corn has been range bound for the better part of the last three months which has presented some great opportunities for traders who recognized a sideways trend and werent sidetracked from the hope of a breakout. First technical resistance we will be watching this week comes in from 358-360 . On the support side of things, we are watching 348 -350. Until we get a fundamental catalyst to provide the market with a breakout or a breakdown we will continue to trade the range.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 358-360 ****, 369 -370 ***, 375****
Support: 348 -350**, 334-335 ***, 323-325 **

The grains are down from a quarter to three quarters percent.