Wednesday, April 5, 2017

How The Russian Currency Has Helped Keep American Wheat Bullish

Compared to soybeans, Chicago wheat has been a veritable pillar of strength
Hourly, last two weeks:
From Agrimoney:

AM markets: wheat futures recover, helped by firmer rouble
If there is one factor which has been on the side of Western wheat bulls, it is the rouble.
The currency has - helped by a recovery in oil prices so crucial for the Russian currency – staged quite a rebound from the record weakness of nearly 86 roubles per $1 reached in January last year.
Early on Wednesday, the rouble eased below 55.8 per $1 for the first time in 21 months.
A rising rouble, in cutting the competitiveness of Russian exports, has checked the stranglehold of the origin on world shipments, after a record harvest last year.
"The strength of the Russian currency is limiting the grains export competitiveness of the country," Agritel noted.
With hiccups in sales to Turkey too, amid diplomatic unease between Ankara and Moscow, Russia's overall grain shipments for the first nine months of 2016-17, to the end of last month, were marginally lower year on year too.
Low winterkill rate
The rising rouble has also helped dilute concerns over the impact of another potential strong Russian harvest ahead, with Moscow pegging at a meagre 3-4% losses of winter crops to frost.
"Such losses are weaker than usual," Agritel said.
"Every year, Russian producers are paying an increased interest to their winter crops, spreading the workload on the whole season and allowing better yields than for spring crops....MORE

Beans are perking up a bit:

Last Chg
Corn 365-4+2-4
Soybeans 946-2+8-4
Wheat 428-6+1-6