Friday, June 17, 2016

Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report

Here's the last year's action from FinViz:
$2.6160 last, up 0.360.
From the Energy Information Administration:

Spot prices rise across the board. The Henry Hub spot price increased again this week, for the third week in a row, rising by 29¢, from $2.33/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.62/MMBtu yesterday, its highest level since September 2015. Prices around the country saw similar increases. At the Chicago Citygate, prices increased by 27¢ from the previous report week and closed at $2.53/MMBtu yesterday. On the West Coast, the PG&E Citygate price in California rose by 15¢, from $2.37/MMBtu to $2.52/MMBtu. Prices likely rose in response to warmer temperatures and increases in consumption of natural gas for power generation. Additionally, PointLogic Energy data indicate that dry gas production this week was lower year-over-year. This decline in production may be supporting price increases as well.

Northeast prices post gains this week. Prices in major northeastern market areas also rose during the report period. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, prices rose 22¢ from $1.93/MMBtu to $2.15/MMBtu, Wednesday to Wednesday. At the Transcontinental Pipeline's Zone 6 trading point for New York, prices rose 19¢ from $1.66 last Wednesday to $1.85/MMBtu yesterday.

Marcellus prices tick up. Marcellus-area prices increased over the week, but generally by a lesser amount than other major price points. The Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus price rose 7¢ from $1.54/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.61/MMBtu yesterday. The price at Dominion South in northwest Pennsylvania rose by 10¢, ending the week at $1.72/MMBtu. Marcellus prices still trade at a discount to the major Northeast market areas of New York and Boston, but the differential has narrowed in recent months.

Nymex prices increase. At the Nymex, the July 2016 contract rose from $2.468/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.595/MMBtu yesterday, an increase of about 13¢. The 12-month strip, which averages the July 2016 through June 2017 futures contracts, rose 3¢ from last Wednesday, closing yesterday at $2.923/MMBtu.

Production flat but imports rise. According to data from PointLogic, average total supply for the report period rose by 1% this report week. This was driven by a 9% increase in imports from Canada, which averaged 6.8 billion cubic feet (Bcf) this week. Dry production was flat at 80.6 Bcf/d.

Consumption increases. Average consumption for the report week rose 2% according to data from PointLogic. This increase was driven by a 5% increase in consumption of natural gas for electric power generation. Power burn this week was 4% greater than year-ago levels. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption fell by 2%. Industrial consumption and exports to Mexico both fell by 1%....