Wednesday, March 2, 2016

EIA Reports Giant Inventory Build, Oil Trades UP

This is what I was trying to get at in last night's "Based On Supply, Oil Is Trading Much Higher Than One Would Expect".

From MarketWatch:
Oil extends losses as EIA reports 10.4 million-barrel jump in U.S. crude supplies
Oil futures lost more ground on Wednesday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 10.4 million-barrel climb in crude-oil supplies for the week ended Feb. 26. That was above the 9.9 million-barrel increase reported by the American Petroleum Institute, and more than four times higher than the rise of 2.5 million barrels expected by analysts polled by Platts. Gasoline supplies fell by 1.5 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles climbed by 2.9 million barrels last week...

ForeXlive notes:

EIA Weekly US oil storage +10,374K vs +3400K expected
Weekly US oil storage data:
  • Largest build since April 2015
  • Gasoline -1468K vs -1500K exp
  • Distillates +2882K vs -1150K exp
The 'consensus' underestimates what the market was looking for. API reported a 9.9 million barrel build so that's likely close to what was expected in the market.API data:
  • US crude stock inventory build of 9.9 million barrels
  • Cushing build of 1.8 million
  • Gasoline draw of 2.2 million barrels
  • Distillate +2.7 million barrels
The only moderately bullish news was the gasoline build. Everything else is a screaming sell....MORE
April futures $34.83 +0.43 after trading as high as $35.17, the first time the front futures have cleared the $34.82 spike high from January 28.

It's action like this that makes the agricultural futures attractive at the moment.