"The Bounce Has Run Its Course" Bob 'The Bear' Janjuah Warns S&P Heading To 1700s
Nomura's Bob Janjuah warend in January that "the bubble implosion can't be fixed this time,"and, as he explains in his latest note, he is pleased with all six of his key forecasts for 2016...In particular on Commodities, with his expectation that crude would trade below $30 (the price per barrel fell from $37 in early January to a low so far of $26 in February). And on Rates, the 30yr UST yield fell from 2.95% in early January to a low so far of 2.49% in February, below his 2.5% target for 2016, and the 10yr UST yield fell from 2.2% in early January to a low so far of 1.66% in February, in line with his expectation over 2016 of a move in yields down from 2% towards 1.5%.
The reasons for his latest note are:
1. To reiterate my bearish views on risk assets for H1 2016 – I continue to see much lower equity prices, lower core bond yields, wider credit spreads, and weakness in EM and commodities over the next four months (at least). In January I said that the S&P500 would fall from 2000/2050 to the 1500s as my target over 2016. I reaffirm this view. I note with interest that at the global equity market ”lows” so far in 2016, seen earlier in February, virtually all major global stock markets were in official bear market territory. For example, the Eurostoxx 50 fell over 30% from its 2015 high to its (so far) 2016 low. The MSCI World fell 20% from its 2015 high to its (so far) 2016 low. The key exception to this move into official bear market territory has been the major US indices, but I expect this to correct itself over the next four months or so.......MORE