This would be the second, but much more intense, storm in the last couple weeks.
From the San Francisco Business Times, Dec 10, 2014, 2:55 pm:
The Bay Area was bracing Wednesday for the arrival of what is expected to be one of the fiercest storms of the last decade, perhaps nearing or exceeding an epic soaker nearly seven years ago.And from Climateer Investing back when the climatologists were forecasting the mother of all El Ninos last spring:
Up to eight inches of rain is forecast at higher elevations, accompanied by winds on peaks and along the coast that could reach 70 miles per hour or higher. Lower down, San Francisco is expected to receive three to five inches of rain, with winds as high as 40 miles per hour. Winds were already picking up in the North Bay Wednesday with the storm scheduled to move south across the Bay Area overnight and into the morning.
As the storm bore down, schools across the Bay Area were rapidly announcing they would be closed Thursday, including all public schools in San Francisco, Oakland and the Marin County public districts. ( For a list of Marin private and public school closures, click here.) Many smaller districts and private schools were following suit, and the list of school closures was growing by the hour...MORE
This is a repost from 2012. The odds of an ARkStorm Scenario rises during a strong El Niño.
Seeing stories like this one"Deadly storms pound California; rain expected beyond weekend" (LAT) or this from SciAm:
Megastorms Could Drown Massive Portions of California
Editor's note (11/30/12): The article will appear in the January 2013 issue of Scientific American. We are making it freely available now because of the flooding underway in California.reminded me that we taken a look at this phenomena back in 2011:
First posted May, 2011:
From the U.S. Geological Survey:
HT: the WaPo's Joel Achenbach* who, writing at Slate, says:The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens.
This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years.
Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state’s flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $400 billion, of which $20 to $30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $325 billion in addition to the $400 billion property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability....MUCH MORE, including three PDF's
The Century of Disasters
Meltdowns. Floods. Tornadoes. Oil spills. Grid crashes. Why more and more things seem to be going wrong, and what we can do about it.
This will be the century of disasters.
In the same way that the 20th century was the century of world wars, genocide, and grinding ideological conflict, the 21st will be the century of natural disasters and technological crises and unholy combinations of the two. It'll be the century when the things that we count on to go right will, for whatever reason, go wrong.
Late last month, as the Mississippi River rose in what is destined to be the worst flood in decades, and as the residents of Alabama and other states rummaged through the debris of a historic tornado outbreak, physicists at a meeting in Anaheim, Calif., had a discussion about the dangers posed by the sun.*Joel may just be putting his profound understanding of new media into practice:
Solar flares, scientists believe, are a disaster waiting to happen. Thus one of the sessions at the American Physical Society's annual meeting was devoted to discussing the hazard of electromagnetic pulses (EMPs) caused by solar flares or terrorist attacks. Such pulses could fry transformers and knock out the electrical grid over much of the nation. Last year the Oak Ridge National Laboratory released a study saying the damage might take years to fix and cost trillions of dollars.
But maybe even that's not the disaster people should be worrying about....MORE
...When in doubt, go with the most hysterical headline.
(Rule one of blogging is that the End Of The World will be good for page views.)
Although the potential for the ARkStorm has been known since the great storm that started on Christmas Eve 1861 and continued for 43 days (see "The Coming Megafloods") the term ARkStorm came to prominence in 2011 with the publiction by the US Geological Survey of "Overview of the ARkStorm Scenario" and by Scientific American of "The Coming Megafloods".
We last saw a co-author of the latter, Berkeley's Professor B. Lynn Ingram in September's "California: The Last 200 Years Were The Happy Time For Weather, Get Ready For A Return to The West Without Water".
She knows hydrology.
