Monday, December 1, 2014

Commodities: "Who will buy my sweet red copper?"

I noted earlier that in September 2012 we actually used the term "The Death of Commodities".

That post linked to another by FT Alphaville's Izabella Kaminska who was already, at that early date, distrustful of the price signals that commodities were sending and who, a couple months later made a connection between gold and TIPS that pretty much eliminated the hope of an upside for gold and, for anyone paying attention (it took me a month to get around to it), put down a marker of a definite shift toward the bearish end of the spectrum for commodities in general.
Down $500 per ounce for gold, for example.

From FT Alphaville:

Wanted: Buyer of last resort for commodities
One of the problems with cartel systems is that when they bust apart they tend to take out not just their own industry but all the other industries that have come to depend on their ability to keep things balanced in their favour.

In fact, best to think of cartels and monopolies as an “ecosystem”, which allow a whole range of different lifeforms to thrive on the back of their ability to keep things in a permanent goldilocked state of not too much and not too little control.

Small surprise then that the repercussions of Opec’s non cut last week have turned to wide-eyed realisation for some market participants that the price function in commodity markets has never really been about the fundamentals as much as the dedication of certain entities to “not sell” volumes when they have them to hand.
The repercussions are now flowing into the currencies of cartel-dependent countries like Russia and Nigeria, but also into other connected commodity markets as well.

In that regard, a key market to keep focus on now, according to Goldman Sachs metals team, is copper.
Especially, as they note, that so much of the price depends on the goodwill of the copper buyer of last resort, namely China’s State Reserves Bureau (our emphasis)...MUCH MORE
Notice how restrained she is? No "yeah baby, nailed it two years ago" while we're all:

image

Here's the deflationary spiral engendered by a lack of purchasers from the movie Oliver, everything just grinds down:
ROSE SELLER
Who will buy my sweet red roses?
Two blooms for a penny.
Who will buy my sweet red roses?
Two blooms for a penny.

MILKMAID
Will you buy any milk today, mistress?
Any milk today, mistress?

ROSE SELLER
Who will buy my sweet red roses?

MILKMAID
Any milk today, mistress?

ROSE SELLER
Two blooms for a penny.

STRAWBERRY SELLER
Ripe strawberries, ripe!
Ripe strawberries, ripe!...
.....Who will buy?