Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Oil: Libya Hopes to Restore Output, Iran and Iraq Threaten Price War, Market Shrugs Ahead Of U.S. Data

Brent down 1/2% at $112.04, WTI up $1.13 at $97.17.
First up, Gulf Business:
OPEC Seen Keeping Oil Cap; Naimi Says Market in Best Shape
The current 30 million barrel-a-day target for the 12-nation group adequately matches demand, say officials.
Energy ministers from at least eight OPEC countries expect the group to keep its crude output target unchanged at a meeting today while Saudi Arabia’s Ali al-Naimi said the market is in the best possible condition.

The current 30 million barrel-a-day target for the 12-nation group adequately matches demand and is unlikely to change much in 2014, Suhail Mohammed Al Mazrouei, the oil minister for the United Arab Emirates, said shortly before closed-door talks began at about 10:30 a.m. local time in Vienna. Ministers from Qatar, Angola, Ecuador, Venezuela, Iraq, Algeria and Nigeria also said they expect the limit to be maintained.

Some analysts warn that excess supply, including U.S. shale oil and a potential resurgence in exports from Iran, Libya and Iraq, may push prices lower next year if production cuts aren’t made. Brent crude has settled above $100 a barrel for all but five days so far this year.

Al-Naimi said that 30 million isn’t too much for OPEC’s target. “No, no, is enough,” the Saudi minister said when asked about it. He later said “wait and see” when asked if the target would be rolled over today. He also said there’s no need for Saudi Arabia to cut its own production level. The kingdom is OPEC’s biggest oil exporter and produced 9.65 million barrels a day last month, according to a Bloomberg survey....MORE
And from Reuters, headline #1:
UPDATE 2-Libya hopes to restore full oil output in two weeks
and #2:

UPDATE 4-Brent slips towards $112; WTI boosted by pipeline news
Keystone XL pipeline may relieve Cushing supply bottleneck
* API data showed drop in U.S. stockpiles
* Iran, Iraq and Libya optimistic on oil output
* OPEC expected to leave production target unchanged
* Coming Up: U.S. EIA stockpiles due 1530 GMT (Updates lead, prices, quote, paragraphs 9 and 10) 
 
Brent crude oil slipped towards $112 a barrel on Wednesday, although the U.S. benchmark rose more than $1 to a five-week high as the oversupply outlook loosened.

U.S. crude oil was boosted by data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showing a drop of 12.4 million barrels in domestic inventories. That snapped a 10-week streak of builds that had added nearly 36 million barrels.

This followed the news TransCanada Corp would begin operations at its Keystone XL pipeline on Jan. 3, allowing stockpiles of crude oil inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, oil hub to move to the U.S. Gulf Coast, where a large share of the country's refining capacity is concentrated.

"This is the start of a period of draws in U.S. crude stocks," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst at SEB Bank.

Brent crude for January delivery was 54 cents lower at $112.08 a barrel at 1210 GMT, after settling $1.17 higher in the previous session. U.S. crude was up $1.16 at $97.20 per barrel, after ending up $2.22 on Tuesday.

An inventory report from the U.S. government Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due at 1530 GMT.

"Today all eyes are on the EIA to see if that (API) draw is reaffirmed," said Gareth Lewis-Davies, senior energy strategist at BNP Paribas.

A Reuters poll forecast a build of 300,000 barrels.

Weighing on Brent crude oil were comments from OPEC members Iran, Iraq and Libya.

Iran said it would lift oil production back to 4 million barrels a day once sanctions are lifted, and Iraq's oil minister said he saw no need for the country to trim oil output next year.

Libya's oil minister said he was "optimistic" that pressure on armed protesters to allow the resumption of production would see Libyan oil output restored to 1.5 million barrels a day later this month....MORE
Pakistan's The Dawn has more:
Iran, Iraq put Opec on notice of big increases