Friday, December 6, 2013

Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report

Today's top tick was $4.1990 which may hold until the NYMEX guys feel chilly next week.
$4.13 last UNCH.
One thing I failed to point out on yesterday's storage report, the report covered the week ended Nov. 29 i.e. before the ridiculously cold batch of air came down to visit. This week's temps will be reflected in next week's storage report.

First up FinViz on today's action:
We're going higher

And from the EIA, Dec. 5:
Natural Gas Weekly Update 
In the News:
Robust natural gas supply narrows spread between futures, spot prices
Colder weather helped raise the price of the front-month natural gas futures contract, which increased on eight consecutive trading days from November 19 to December 2, with the price reaching $3.988/million British thermal units (MMBtu), its highest level since June 5, 2013. Despite this rally in prices, futures prices for the rest of the month remained relatively low. There has also been a reduction in seasonal price variations, seen when comparing the differences between the natural gas front-month contract and day-ahead spot prices. The premium that the winter months futures contracts have over spot prices has diminished considerably in recent years....MORE 
...The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts that total dry natural gas production in the United States this winter (November 2013 to March 2014) will reach 67.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), a 2% increase over last winter and 12% more than the winter of 2010-11. Additionally, working inventories reached their 2013 peak on November 8, and entered the withdrawal season with the fifth-highest annual level recorded by EIA. This is in keeping with a recent trend of high inventories at the start of the winter withdrawal season; stocks have exceeded 3.8 trillion cubic feet each fall since 2009....  
Prices/Demand/Supply:
Prices rose in most parts of the country, with the exception of the price decrease in the Northeast. As cold weather took hold in the western United States, prices at locations in that area increased. Below-zero temperatures hit the Rockies on Wednesday and prices at Opal in Wyoming increased 20 cents/ MMBtu to $4.18/MMBtu from Tuesday. Generally, prices in the western United States increased between 2 cents/MMBtu and 62 cents/MMBtu from last Wednesday. The Henry Hub price rose slightly from $3.79/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.88/MMbtu yesterday....MUCH MORE