Natural Gas: Injections Come In Light, Futures Pop

Late start with the blogging, equities got in the way.
We haven't had much cookin' with gas the last two weeks but it's time to start paying attention.
From the EIA:

for week ending October 4, 2013.   |   Released: October 10, 2013 at 10:30 a.m.   |   Next Release: October 17, 2013

Working gas in underground storage, lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
								Historical Comparisons
	Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf)							Year ago (10/04/12)				5-Year average (2008-2012)
Region	10/04/13		09/27/13		change			(Bcf)		% change		(Bcf)		% change
East	1,851		1,800		51			1,999		-7.4		1,952		-5.2
West	538		529		9			513		4.9		484		11.2
Producing	1,188		1,158		30			1,203		-1.2		1,086		9.4
Salt	287		278		9			258		11.2		179		60.3
Nonsalt	901		879		22			945		-4.7		908		-0.8
Total	3,577		3,487		90			3,715		-3.7		3,522		1.6

...MORE

Here's the reaction, via FinViz, $3.7610, last:

Algos gone wild.
And this morning's commentary from Energy Metro Desk via the CME:

Natural Gas Storage Tealeaves for 10/10/13 

Each week, we poll 40 professional storage forecasts for our weekly Natural-Gas Storage Box Scores (as seen in each bi-weekly issue of Energy Metro Desk*). This is North America's biggest and most comprehensive natural-gas storage survey and report.

 

Average: +93 Bcf

Median: +92.5 Bcf 

Range: +86 to 106 Bcf 

 

Editors Forecast This Week: +96 Bcf

Natural Gas Storage Tealeaves for 10/10/13 

 

We should be looking at a build this week not unlike the beefy one we saw last week. EIA reported a 101 build last time and the market was more or less within 6 Bcf of that number. Our consensus came in at 95.5 and the average of big surveys we track was slightly lower at 95.1 Bcf. So, we'll call it a minor surprise. We nailed the bias in any case. This week, we note that most of the big surveys averaged 94+ Bcf this week, but the bias is slightly lower - risk to the low side this week folks, by a point or two. Our consensus came in slightly below the index average at 93 Bcf. The EMD All Star Forecast was lower still at 90.9 Bcf. The range between the three categories we track was small and the SD this week was somewhat low as well; we have no reason to think we will have a surprise this week. The massive storage overhang we all enjoyed this summer just keeps slipping away - all that remains between a new record and last year's record is 155 Bcf. Reuters tells us that if weekly builds into early November match the five-year average pace, inventories will begin the heating season at 3.825 Tcf, about 2.6 percent below last year's record high of 3.929 Tcf but about 1.3 percent above the five year average. Last time we checked, the five year average build level has been virtually AWOL this shoulder season. With the exception of the report on 9/19, something like 10 of the past 12 reports (counting this week) beat the 5-year average and last year, easily. This week, the build simply has to beat 84 Bcf to eclipse the 5-year average and last year's 73 Bcf. The average misfire between EIA reports and the market average forecast is about 6 Bcf. Just saying. -the editor....MUCH MORE